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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (27027)	11/19/2005 8:29:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

In a previous post, I showed a table of quarterly estimates versus actuals for the 17 out of the 23 stocks in the Group that report on a calendar quarter basis. Message 21871361 In this table, KLIC was still an estimated number instead of the actual number. Now KLIC has reported so I updated the table, and also put in another 2 columns that show the estimate for next quarters earnings, and the percent, up or down, for that estimate compared to the just reported actuals for this quarter. - SEP 2005 GROUP EARNINGS SUMMARY - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR NEXT PCT - QTR EARN EARN PCT QTR CHG SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF EST E/A ASML 3Q 0.11 0.12 9 0.11 -8 ASYT 2Q -0.03 0.02 0.03 50 ATMI 3Q 0.25 0.22 -12 0.25 14 BRKS 4Q -0.04 0.00 -0.03 COHU 3Q 0.27 0.42 56 0.43 2 CYMI 3Q 0.20 0.35 75 0.41 17 KLAC 1Q 0.49 0.50 2 0.47 -6 KLIC 4Q 0.18 0.19 6 0.26 37 LRCX 1Q 0.30 0.35 17 0.39 11 MTSN 3Q 0.03 0.01 -67 0.04 300 NVLS 3Q 0.21 0.17 -19 0.16 -6 PHTN 4Q -0.45 -0.31 0.12 SMTL 4Q 0.07 0.09 29 0.08 -11 TER 3Q -0.02 0.09 0.18 100 UTEK 3Q -0.04 0.01 0.05 400 VECO 3Q 0.12 0.14 17 0.17 21 WFR 3Q 0.29 0.25 -14 0.35 40 SEP05 TOTAL 1.94 2.62 35 3.47 32 JUN05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12 Some items of note: 1. Four of the stocks, ASML, KLAC, NVLS and SMTL show lower next quarter estimates than actuals for the quarter just reported. 2. At the bottom of the table, results are shown for these 17 stocks since Jun 04. Estimates and actuals bottomed in Mar 05 and have been going up since then. The greatest percent difference between estimates and actuals just occurred this past quarter at 35 percent(doesn't say much for the analysts does it?:) Even with that "gain" for this past quarter, the estimate for the next quarter is again higher by 32 percent. This gets us to 3.47 for the quarter which is the highest number in the table with the exception of Sep 04 at 4.25. A couple of "sorts" can be made to make the table a little easier to read. First, a sort by the fifth column - SEP 2005 GROUP EARNINGS SUMMARY - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR NEXT PCT - QTR EARN EARN PCT QTR CHG SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF EST E/A CYMI 3Q 0.20 0.35 75 0.41 17 COHU 3Q 0.27 0.42 56 0.43 2 SMTL 4Q 0.07 0.09 29 0.08 -11 LRCX 1Q 0.30 0.35 17 0.39 11 VECO 3Q 0.12 0.14 17 0.17 21 ASML 3Q 0.11 0.12 9 0.11 -8 KLIC 4Q 0.18 0.19 6 0.26 37 KLAC 1Q 0.49 0.50 2 0.47 -6 ATMI 3Q 0.25 0.22 -12 0.25 14 WFR 3Q 0.29 0.25 -14 0.35 40 NVLS 3Q 0.21 0.17 -19 0.16 -6 MTSN 3Q 0.03 0.01 -67 0.04 300 PHTN 4Q -0.45 -0.31 0.12 TER 3Q -0.02 0.09 0.18 100 UTEK 3Q -0.04 0.01 0.05 400 ASYT 2Q -0.03 0.02 0.03 50 BRKS 4Q -0.04 0.00 -0.03 SEP05 TOTAL 1.94 2.62 35 3.47 32 JUN05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12 Then a sort by the 7th column can be made. - SEP 2005 GROUP EARNINGS SUMMARY - FISCAL QTR QTR QTR NEXT PCT - QTR EARN EARN PCT QTR CHG SYMBOL END EST ACT DIFF EST E/A UTEK 3Q -0.04 0.01 0.05 400 MTSN 3Q 0.03 0.01 -67 0.04 300 TER 3Q -0.02 0.09 0.18 100 ASYT 2Q -0.03 0.02 0.03 50 WFR 3Q 0.29 0.25 -14 0.35 40 KLIC 4Q 0.18 0.19 6 0.26 37 VECO 3Q 0.12 0.14 17 0.17 21 CYMI 3Q 0.20 0.35 75 0.41 17 ATMI 3Q 0.25 0.22 -12 0.25 14 LRCX 1Q 0.30 0.35 17 0.39 11 COHU 3Q 0.27 0.42 56 0.43 2 NVLS 3Q 0.21 0.17 -19 0.16 -6 KLAC 1Q 0.49 0.50 2 0.47 -6 ASML 3Q 0.11 0.12 9 0.11 -8 SMTL 4Q 0.07 0.09 29 0.08 -11 PHTN 4Q -0.45 -0.31 0.12 BRKS 4Q -0.04 0.00 -0.03 SEP05 TOTAL 1.94 2.62 35 3.47 32 JUN05 TOTAL 1.70 2.13 25 MAR 05 TOTAL 1.25 1.46 17 DEC 04 TOTAL 2.70 2.91 8 SEP 04 TOTAL 4.13 4.25 3 JUN 04 TOTAL 3.49 3.91 12