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To: mishedlo who wrote (126579)12/1/2005 1:46:37 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
There is a world of difference between being open to, say, a new ATH on the Dow, and believing in Bull Eternal. I know you know this: markets can and do simultaneously support seemingly contradictory viewpoints.

Where I take a different view on the macro picture is in not viewing the US economy as a discrete unit. Every economy with a solid currency peg to the US dollar can be considered to be part of the US economy: China may as well be the 51st state, and Saudi Arabia the 52nd.

I don't worry too much about 15% (or whatever) housing affordability because the US real estate market is to the rest of the dollar-pegged world what a condo in Manhattan is to a double-wide in Alabama. The US housing market *should* be very expensive, even for locals, because it draws the top strata from the entire globe.



To: mishedlo who wrote (126579)12/1/2005 9:15:17 AM
From: skinowski  Respond to of 209892
 
The "fundamentalist" in me would agree with this (and Bobcor's) argument... and the "chartist" doesn't have too much problems with it either. The DOW may be poised to (conceivably) reach new highs... but for the overall market that would probably be a point "B". I don't think the Bear is any place close to being done.