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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (46433)	12/2/2005 1:39:37 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

what is the event?> There are dozens of causa proximas, but the one I lean towards is a very sudden credit convulsion centering around the immense lower or subprime tranches of the MBS and ABS markets. There is huge risk there that is simply not being priced in, Message 21933405 and it's building day by day like a volcano, every time (month by month)another cohort has a rate reset. I keep posting this because the waves are already starting to pound the shore, and won't let up: idorfman.com This will change the credit markets overnight into a coward, and quickly eliminate all the emboldened Humpty Dumpty activity. lestoil.net The feed through will be a chain reaction to all the credit and equity markets. Timeline? I would have thought last month, last week, anytime in fact, I look for it daily,it's out there like a shark encircling it's prey. The other event will work a bit slower, but it's timing could not be worse for Bully, and that's tougher lending requirements on toxic mortgages imminent from the regulators. Message 21936067 To me this actually looks serious. That will remove a large measure of the marginal buyers at a critical point in the rollover process, and create a waterfall effect in housing.