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To: byhiselo who wrote (126664)	12/3/2005 10:06:50 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Thanks for bringing this up. $SPX/$VIX was better than a 5-bagger since 2002... very interesting. The ratio has been trending up through thick and thin during those last few years, but still -- note the lows in August 2004, and in April - May of this year, as well last October. They coincide with lows in the markets. Otoh, note the peaks last December and last summer. They are pointed pretty nicely to tops. $VIX is related to emotions, and human emotions in the final analysis do not trend -- they oscillate. I think there always will be a way to use it as an indicator. I made it a weekly: stockcharts.com[f,a]walayyay[d20020101,20051224][pd20,2!f][vc60][ila12,26,9!lp14,3,3]&listNum=1

To: byhiselo who wrote (126664)	12/3/2005 10:19:53 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

I don't understand the point of that chart. VIX itself is a percentage of SPX: what is the purpose of charting a ratio of a unbounded number with an arbitrarily bounded version of itself?

To: byhiselo who wrote (126664)	12/3/2005 10:33:40 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Sorry for putting this in a seperate post, ran out of time in editing the first reply. give me a 20 handle for the start of a new bull market, not 100+ An SPX:VIX ratio of 20 with SPX at 1250 implies a VIX of over 60. A VIX of 60 implies a Black Monday event (and I do mean THE Black Monday) is expected to occur every 4 weeks. Never in the entire history of the market has there ever been a period even close to matching that criteria. Put another way...VIX in its familiar form is being expressed as an annual percentage, but it is also expressable as a daily percentage. An annual VIX of 60% is equivalent to a daily VIX of ~4%. A daily VIX of 4% means the market is pricing in the expectancy of 4% moves each and every single day. Put together, your statement above is saying that if the market was gyrating 50 SPX points a day you would consider it a buyable bottom and a suitable start to a bull market. Is that really what you think? I'm not asking that in a "gee that's stupid" way, I am asking in full sincerity and in genuine interest of how others view the market.