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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (177091)	12/5/2005 6:46:11 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I think Lieberman (a sort of conservative Democrat) and McCain (a conservative Republican) are good on the Iraq issue. I don't know much about Biden - I live in TX and don't listen to Imus. Re. the analysis you laid out: 1. Next three months crucial from election to final constitution. OK, though the prior elections - for the transitional ass'y & for the ratification of the constitution - were crucial too. 2. If the election and constitution are not inclusive enough to engage the sunni, full scale civil war breaks out Perhaps. 3. All regional powers--US, Iran, Turkey, GB, France, Russia, all have interest in no civil war because that could morph into a regional war which could engulf the area and set back our FP (and that of others) for a generation. I'm not so sure of that. If a civil war were to occur (one could claim the present violence has the makings of one) it would be the central Shia & Kurd supported gov't against the Sunni minority and frankly it would be in our interest to supply the central gov't with the means (I'm talking about equipment, material, and training) to decisively suppress the Sunnis and the quicker the better. If we were not to support the central gov't adequately, the strife would continue without resolution and that would tend to pull in the neighboring countries. 4. MY ADD No one has an interest in aiding the growth of al quaeda in the region. Too many americans too quickly lump ayotollahs with wahabis. Both are terrorists indeed but the iranian version is not part of a world wide movement trying to overthrow the west. Its aims are far more limited and regional. The wahabis would love to kill all the infidel shiaa ayotolahs at the appropriate moment so they are the enemy of al quaeda too, even though they engage when interest seem to coicide.. I'm not so sure about Iran's mullahs. Supporting a lesser enemy against a greater enemy happens. ... it is my belief that the iranian people will eventually boot out the mad mullahs. I certainly hope so.