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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46981)	12/10/2005 11:33:01 AM
From: Douglas M. Benedict	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Here's a little tale for you...as we stand beside this Casino Baccarat table watching Gold (and anything else for that matter)... One time I was playing Baccarat and betting player...( being cheap I figured I'd save the commission by not betting Banker)...nothing much unusual happens...I'm winning a few hands...looks good...then banker starts winning...after 3 banker wins I figure it's players turn...so I double down on Player...Banker wins...once more, same bet on Player...Banker wins...ok..so I freeze...but right beside me, a fellow starts doubling up...Banker wins...and this continues...each time the fellow doubles up...and sure enough Banker wins...now he is standing and a crowd is gathering because he is starting to get loud...and has to pull cash out of his pocket to double up... my wife is gasping...I was counting the streak, and he kept doubling...He hit the table maximum..and sure enough the Banker kept winning...but now he could only bet the table maximum, and he was cursing...this can't be happening...from a 5 dollar bet, he was now betting $3000...fortunately the table had a limit...He had to stop fortunately for him (as he was out of cash but full of curses)...because this streak carried on... MORAL: I was an idiot not to switch to BANKER... but I learned the moral fast...because I never expected it to happen again... A later visit to Vegas and we decided to find a quiet table to ourselves and started betting Player as usual...(can't get over the cheap seats!!!...lol..hate to pay the commish)...bad habit really... So along we go and Player is winning...and I don't just double up...I add back 50% of my winnings ( $10 becomes 15...becomes 20...becomes 30...becomes 45 pausing at same level every so often as a check to avoid over-betting..etc...difference is pocketed)..and I play the dealers tip the same way...Lo and behold the Player keeps winning...and winning and winning...the only person crowding the table was the Pit Boss...making sure the dealer wasn't making a mistake...of course this is on camera as well...my wife was in shock...she asked me how much was on the table...I said I don't know and it doesn't matter because when it ends...it'll be obvious, we had learned our lesson from the earlier incident mentioned above...in the meantime...profits were piling up fast (remember I didn't double up...so suddenly I was betting $500 or more a hand...)...YES..I eventually lost a big Bet (I didn't even calculate it as it was immaterial...but I walked away a winner that paid for the whole vacation...on $5 starting bet...and the dealer was beaming as well...she saw the streak end and congratulated us...it was something one doesn't forget... Moral: don't make predictions...just follow the trend til it breaks... And if you don't believe me...then ask one of Richard Dennis' Turtle Traders...I'm sure many of them are in this commodity trend strong... or..you could ask anyone in 1983 as the Dow broke 1000... Enjoy Christmas...

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46981)	12/10/2005 12:08:54 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I do not think we can predict acurately the price of gold. We can only be confident in gold maintaining its purchasing power over the long term while showing extreme volatility. Reviewing the charts of the 1970-1980 period tells me that gold could be $450 or $650 next year, $600 or $1000 in 2007, $2000 and up within the next 5 years with all kind of ups and down. FWIW, I believe the trend is up and we will have $650, $1000 and then $2000 in the years ahead.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46981)	12/10/2005 12:10:13 PM
From: Bonefish	Respond to of 110194

Someone waiting for a big pullback in gold... nerdie.com courtesy, chief.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46981)	12/10/2005 1:08:34 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<As we edge into 2006, I see a stronger dollar, weak housing, weak stock market and weak gold> I am afraid I don't understand your logic. Stronger dollar in 2006 - probably. But how can you get housing, stock market and gold all weak? If housing and stock market deteriorate in 2006, that would signal/lead to weakening of economy. Are there any reasons to doubt that the new maestro will lower interest rates? That should be very positive for gold and, with some delay, negative for USD. I agree with your argument about the trends "you can't tell a trend change from a correction until well after the fact". However, although the charts of HUI and APPL look similar, there are fundamental reasons why APPL is likely to be lower in a few years - and HUI higher.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46981)	12/10/2005 5:56:28 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp retreat in gold and silver through the end of the year. However, after that I expect the dollar to restart its decline and gold should reassert itself soon thereafter. JMO.