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To: carranza2 who wrote (150425)	12/10/2005 12:47:35 PM
From: Lane3	Respond to of 793788

>>his conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. He picked two hundred and eighty-four people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends,” and he started asking them to assess the probability that various things would or would not come to pass, both in the areas of the world in which they specialized and in areas about which they were not expert.<< You have to commend the guy for his fortitude, if nothing else. <g> >>“We reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly,” he reports. << Seriously, that was a fascinating piece. And thoughtful. Thanks for offering it.

To: carranza2 who wrote (150425)	12/10/2005 1:07:56 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793788

Very interesting article, c2. But my question is on the framing of the study: who are these "experts" and were they selected (or self-selected) for knowledge or entertainment value? If the latter, who should expect them to predict well? If the former, who can test if they really qualify? This is very much like the studies of Wall Street which concluded that the experts did no better than dart throwing; therefore the whole thing must be a random walk. To which my answer is: Yet Warren Buffet exists. Just because "the experts" aren't really experts, doesn't mean that there is no such thing as expertise. The more interesting question, to my mind, is: can you find any person or persons among these studied "experts" whose prectictions actually had a good chance of coming true?