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To: Taikun who wrote (4933)12/14/2005 3:45:25 PM
From: NOW  Respond to of 25575
 
ceo and cfo? isnt that considered an auto-short ususally?



To: Taikun who wrote (4933)12/14/2005 4:19:26 PM
From: James C. Mc Gowan  Respond to of 25575
 
RE: Index Trust Inclusion, trading starts Monday.
This coming Monday is the first trading day, post-inclusion for number of the O+G trusts, including COS.un

Now, I am assuming that all the 'proxy index mutual funds' AKA, managed MF portfolios in Canada, have already loaded up on those trusts that they knew would likely be included in the indexes, during the post-Goodale selloff,right?

However, true index funds can't buy units until they are actually in the index, ergo, come Monday we will have potential large scale buying. I assume all the major Canadian MF families have an index funds, it is de riguer for all US MF families to have this option available for investors(e.g. SPX500 index).

Now, I have read that 'final inclusion' will be complete by March for these new, trust-expanded index funds. So does this mean they have between Monday and a date certain in March, 2006 to load the boat, and get enough units to balance according to the index fund charter, and the index weighting? Yes, I believe.

So they have about 3 months to settle in. I will be watching the supply/demand charts and the buy volume vs. sell volume closely during the initial weeks after Monday.

Some trusts were apparently added late in the game, including TUI.un, et al. I have noticed this one has taken off in the past few days, perhaps a harbinger of things to come for others? Or just specific to the late additions, that caught the MF'ers off guard?

Anyway, demand will outstrip supply for a while, unless the MF families bought extra in the 'actively managed' type funds and will simply shift additional shares over to the pure index funds in their fund stable.

Just some idle speculation, but bullish for these included trusts, IMHO.

Any thoughts, anyone?
James



To: Taikun who wrote (4933)12/14/2005 5:48:17 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25575
 
why would people short COS ahead of index inclusion?

COS seems to have big moves on a regular basis which do not necessarily correlate with the sector--e.g., SU slightly up today. i am starting to think this is because COS lacks liquidity so moves are pronounced either way. by "lacking liquidity", e.g. 378K shares traded today. by comparison, VLO, which has a similar per-share price of US$109, trades north of 7 million daily. and VLO is not exactly a household name. SU has about ten times the volume of COS if you count both US and Canadian trading.