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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (217)	12/15/2005 9:16:00 PM
From: kailuabruddah	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 361

I like the look of JWN - it's got something of a jagged edge look to it at the tops - i.e., emotional moves... One that has (finally) paid off for me - after a couple of 2% to 3% loss-cutting covers is URBN - a Bully play no doubt! If I'm shorting very close to new highs my cut point will always be 3% max... when I short into an area of resistance (a "shoulder" perhaps), I generally pick a spot 3% to 5% above that resistance... The HBs were interesting today... PHM in particular looked like it was going to break above $43.50 - but failed and finished near the low... I assume PHM will get a 1% to 1.5% pop up on KBH's earnings Friday - but if it again fails to close above $43.50, this could be the start of a nice swoon... RYL also failed to close above $78 and may be a prime candidate here... I agree with a post of yours on another board - that the rising short term rates (due to less FCB participation) will invert us before FF = 4.5% on JAN 31... That ought to mean we go to 4.75% at least - perhaps the curve un-inverts due to higher 5/10/30 year rates at some point in FEB/MAR... but none of that will be good news for the HBs...

To: russwinter who wrote (217)	12/21/2005 9:49:36 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 361

bought puts on IWM, feb 67's @ 1.70

To: russwinter who wrote (217)	12/21/2005 9:08:40 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 361

For now the asian stock markets are rallying, and aside from recent small shakedowns which always have been bought, the indices make new highs. Korea with its highly automated options market is particularly interesting. Right now there was one of the frequent mini-shakes but the underlying strength of the market made people quickly buying the index up again. Then, there's always the north-korea event risk. Options are not really expensive (with implied volatility about 17 for March options), but the futures a bit clumsy to scale. On a longer run it always seems to fade severely right at the beginning of the second quarter. The front month in options is pretty efficient with option prices quoted in 0.01 spreads.