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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (27476)	12/16/2005 11:22:02 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

<After expiration we're going to have a big move one way or the other.> Agree. But with a twist. A false move up into year end (2.5 to 5%)probably in one or two days duration, that lends belief in a big run, followed by a hard sell of 10% for the new year. One of the reasons might be all the new stocks going into QQQQ should lead to blind buying next week driving that index toward $43. After the buying spree and a little distribution around $43 QQQQ equivalent, Algo starts the selloff. Kind of amazing that NVLS has been held/hedged so tight to $25. I expected 22.50 on the index exit.

To: robert b furman who wrote (27476)	12/16/2005 12:19:57 PM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95737

Is there any hard evidence of the "double-ordering"? Or soft? The same firm cut TER too. "Citigroup cut Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) to sell from hold, saying double ordering in the chip supply chain makes it increasingly concerned about the support for a strong first quarter 2006. "The broker told clients said that although it feels any first-quarter "air pocket" is liable to be short lived, recent checks suggest at least some customers have slowed purchases of back-end equipment on similar concerns."

To: robert b furman who wrote (27476)	12/16/2005 12:32:06 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 95737

All could break out and all could fall out of bed. Looking forward it appears that the shortage that was dragging down Intel is about to be non relevant; Intel's outlook could be far better than what would be expected from seasonal slow Q1. Intel and in particular AMAT did well in the recent past "breaking" to certain extend the sell off pattern after earnings respectively mid quarter update. Latest news Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com, Taipei [Thursday 15 December 2005] Global DRAM output grew a slight 2.7% in November to reach 704 million 256Mbit equivalent units, representing a 57% increase in monthly output from January of this year. However, the proportion of DRAM output devoted to DDR2 production dipped last month for only the second time this year, as DRAM makers adjusted to the slow adoption rates in the market. Despite the penetration rate of DDR2 dropping to 35%, DRAMeXchange expects demand to pick up from late December as the Intel chipset shortage eases. According to various reports, an Intel chipset shortage peaked in October, and Intel has begun sourcing chipsets from ATI Technologies in order to maintain its supply of entry-level DDR2 supporting motherboards, with supply ramping through the end of this year. DRAMeXchange stated that it expects the DDR2 penetration rate in the OEM market to surpass 50% in the first quarter of 2006, although demand in the spot market will remain weak. In the first half of next year, the DDR2 segment will also get a boost from the launch of AMD’s DDR2-supporting Socket M-2 processors. However, since AMD will ship a large proportion of its DDR2-supporting CPUs to PC OEMs, it will have a limited impact on demand in the spot market, DRAMeXchange reasoned. Consumers have been skeptical of the performance of DDR2 compared with DDR, and memory module houses have remained conservative as well. Despite DDR2 currently being priced lower than comparative DDR parts, the related DDR2 production costs are higher, sources explained.