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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (47835)	12/20/2005 8:04:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The only mystery is that the US business is not using the easy credit. Why is that a mystery? There is mammoth overcapacity everywhere. Mish

To: arun gera who wrote (47835)	12/20/2005 8:35:35 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

>Jobs just migrate from efficient steps to the bottlenecked steps of the supply chain. Steady increase in manufacturing efficiency has not decreased the overall number of jobs. Similarly, any improvement in robotics and AI is not going to change that...< This is the standard answer. However, I think it misses a crucial element and that is the growing obsolescence of human capability. Somehow this is an aspect that is never considered in economics textbooks though given human ingenuity it should have been obvious. At one time, we used sled dogs and elephants as work animals. We later found better tools and mechanisms to perform these jobs and today these animals are primarily there for our pleasure. No productive functionality anymore. These animals still contribute to GDP but their contributions are only a fraction of what they were. As larger and larger human contributions to the productive process get commoditized due to intense competition, many humans will be left behind without jobs. This scenario seems to fall into your reason #2 as there will be far fewer transactions. Though just as happened to the animals above, some of the more attractive and feature rich ones will continue to function for pleasure and convenience for the full value contributors but the future of the rest (most) will be in serious doubt. It will be interesting to watch these developments.