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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (2823)	12/23/2005 10:24:51 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217847

Arun, I don't buy the assumption: <It will be very difficult for China to stay the leader when it gets there.> China has numbers, but as Bangladesh, Nigeria, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and Switzerland show, there is much more to wealth per capita than numbers. China has only 4 x as many people as the USA, so even in absolute terms, it's not vastly ahead. When one considers that the USA has got people like me as part of the system, the USA numbers should be boosted and would be more like China's. To get ahead, China will have to do a lot more than working for less money. There needs to be a long-term competitive advantage. Those advantages have to be sufficient to overcome the long-term competitive disadvantages. I don't think China has a chance. The glory days of conquest and Genghis Khan as a means to wealth have long-gone. The world isn't a place of found-wealth. It's a place of created and voluntarily traded wealth. It's already 8 years since I was in Bangalore, so I suppose quite a bit has changed, but I'd be surprised if it isn't much the same. It is very very far from a first world place. So it's one person short of "everyone thinks of Bangalore as being this First World kind of place" [you makes two]. The USA has intrinsic advantages, and with the added control of cyberspace which they enjoy, I think they have got a choke hold on the rest of the world to go along with the other advantages. The advantages I'm thinking of are social rather than things like giant oil fields, and other resources. I don't see why the USA couldn't use Domain Name Servers as tax collectors. Building a competing network would be quite a project. Mqurice

To: arun gera who wrote (2823)	12/24/2005 8:34:39 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217847

arun, <<It will be very difficult for China to stay the leader when it gets there>> you seem to concede that the trajectory and destination is a given, only the longevity is in doubt. firstly, it is not exactly clear to me what getting there means, since the world was, is and will always be divided into the haves and have nots, and in this new age where military conquest is clearly out of the question as demo-ed by the utter impotency of regular armies of coalition of the foolish, then 'getting there' can only mean owning stuff and living well, i guess, if so, the trajectory and the basic impetus behind the trajectory matters So, the overseas chinese, as a group, if a nation, is perhaps on average the wealthiest group bar none, of approximately 55 million in population ... the magic sauce is not electoral anything, and in fact a genuinely honest electoral democracy is probably the fastest route to communism. the secret sauce is (a) property rights, (b) capitalism, and (c) the choice to adopt and adapt (a) and (b) so that all is moving in the correct direction. If so, then I think I need not say more about trajectory. As to staying 'there', it is a matter of whether the folks after getting there is inclined to over-extend, interfere, and generally doing the wrong things, or whether they choose to simply enjoy commerce for commerce's sake, the pure joy of moving forward. This is a matter dictated by intrinsic inclination, and on this I also do not need to say more. The equation of TeoTwawKi is clear to me, not clouded by spin and fluff, and other truly unimportant things. The issue important, and on this I am a bit uncertain, is where, who, what, when the inequality engendered in the world's march towards teotwawki will cause a blow up. Will it be Paris, Beijing, New Orleans, or Bombay. And here, again, it all depends of intrinsic inclinations and innate tendencies. Let's watch. Chugs, J