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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (48353)	12/29/2005 2:46:19 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You are starting too sound more and more like the pumping mortgage broker with his daily show in my bubble market All is well and ends well in both your versions of paradise..

To: GST who wrote (48353)	12/29/2005 3:04:12 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Here is the risk. What if Chenese won't start consuming more? Also <<few hundred dollars more in consumption per person per year>> doesn't sound doable at all. According to Andy Xie (in the same link) annual per capita consumption is just Rmb10,000. think China’s urban consumption is Rmb10,000 per capita at most. For the purposes of illustration, a taxi driver in Beijing might make about Rmb30,000 per annum, with a spouse who earns, say, another Rmb10,000 per annum. We believe such a family of three might typically look to save around 25% of its income, and could therefore afford Rmb30,000 consumption per year, or Rmb10,000 per capita. Did you see this: greater than 85% of the build-up in Chinese forex reserves during the post-2000 period can be traced to “hot money” -- capital inflows probably driven in large part by speculation on renminbi revaluation.

To: GST who wrote (48353)	12/29/2005 4:07:54 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

The reality is that China is going through a profound transition at a remarkable pace and is teeming with bright, ambitious, well educated young people who live in cities and have realistic expectations of living in a prosperous country called China that is not simply a good place for a bunch of factories This remarkable transition as you call it is financed by Americans living above their means. Once the housing atm is busted and Americans can no longer borrow and spend, China's remarkable growth stops in its tracks. They may be able to transition to a domestic economy but the crash comes first. Sort of like 1929 to 1935 for the United States. Did the US grow like crazy in the last 70 years? Of course. Did the US have a severe depression 75 years ago? China needs to wean itself away from American overconsumption. They will eventually but will only take the necessary steps when forced.

To: GST who wrote (48353)	12/30/2005 12:22:29 AM
From: regli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Since there have been a few developments since Roach wrote this, I think this little excerpt might help: China's Even Heftier Economy news.yahoo.com ... Among the important findings: China's economy has gotten not only bigger but also healthier. For starters, concerns that the mainland economy relies too much on heavy investment spending should abate. The new numbers will likely show that China's investment as a portion of GDP could be as low as 37%, rather than the 46% assumed previously. That puts China's figure in line with the likes of South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong at comparable stages of development. ...