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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46644)	1/4/2006 7:04:10 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 306849

Home builders see flat housing starts By James Temple CONTRA COSTA TIMES NOTE: Check out Dr. Thornberg's comments at the end of article! contracostatimes.com California's 12-year run of home building gains will likely end in 2006, as developers pause to clear out excess inventory during the early part of the year, according to a trade group's annual housing forecast. The Sacramento-based California Building Industry Association report released Wednesday also predicted the state's torrid pace of housing price advances will slow, to between 5 percent and 8 percent per square foot. That's well off the 25 percent to 30 percent increases of the past few years. The first quarter in particular could promise some price relief, as home builders pony up concessions to slice their growing inventory levels, said Alan Nevin, CBIA chief economist. The CBIA predicts that Bay Area housing starts in 2006, as measured by the number of new housing permits, will be flat with last year, at between 26,000 and 28,000 units. The cost of low-priced houses in the region could rise another 5 to 8 percent, mirroring the statewide trend, but Nevin said higher-cost housing will likely trail those gains. Statewide, the CBIA projects 185,000 to 205,000 new housing permits in 2006, down from an estimated 212,000 last year. Most of the decline will likely be in the high-end segment in coastal areas. Transactions in the resale market will likely fall to between 550,000 and 600,000, down from a recent high of 650,000. Given the decline in housing construction, the CBIA also expects to see a "modest pull-back" in construction employment, which accounted for 13 percent of the more than 400,000 new California jobs created in 2005. California housing starts have been declining since October, as home builders move to cut inventory levels in the face of an 8-month-long fall in sales. The building decline is likely to persist through the first quarter, "but spring will bloom again," Nevin said. "We'll see the construction industry and new housing move forward at the pace it has been the last couple of years." Others are not as optimistic. Christopher Thornberg, senior economist with the UCLA Forecast, expects housing construction to drop by 25 percent next year, resulting in significant job loss for the construction industry. He said the CBIA's pricing prediction could prove true, but he hopes it doesn't because he believes prices are already "out of whack with reality." "The real question is, is it a good thing if they go up and the answer is clearly 'no,'" he

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46644)	1/4/2006 7:51:17 PM
From: Hank	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 306849

Um, I've been here since the 1990's too. I was here at the birth of the internet, actually. "marginmike" is 35 years old. I'm 46. I was around the block ten times before he even graduated from high school, so spare me the "you're new here crap". I don't post much. Usually, if I do it's on biotech scams since pharmaceuticals is my area of expertise. I just get annoyed with the incessant blanket statements I see here, like "real estate will wipe everyone out in 2006". I mean come on people. RE markets are local. Will they retract? Yes? How much depends on the area. As for my stated profit on my current RE deal, why should that piss anyone off.? Is it my only investment? No. RE is just a portion of my portfolio and I own RE in several states, including NY. I don't like cocky shits calling me out or making dumb statements. If you're going to act like an ass, I'll treat you like one.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46644)	1/4/2006 9:46:33 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 306849

But since you're new here, you should know that marginmike has been a long time, well-respected poster on SI. He has an excellent track record, as far as I'm concerned. Well said Patron. I was thinking about posting something similar but you did an exemplary job. I'm proud to say I'm one of the 357 who've peoplemarked MM. I'll bet you $500 cyber clownbucks or a bottle of Patron he doesn't have me peoplemarked. <g>