Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (179210)	1/5/2006 10:45:24 AM
From: neolib	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

One key step needs to be the creation of a nationalist party that TRULY represents Iraqi nationalism That was our hope, but this last election should have made it clear that it is mostly fantasy. Iraq is going to end up with partisan Islamic rule, at least as long as democratic elections are held. If it reverts to nondemocratic rule, it might become secular again, assuming we can help select the Iraqi Tito. The Kurds are indeed in the King-Maker seat, but even then, a very large fraction of Kurds/Sunnis would need to form a cooperative block to prevent Shia domination. I can't see such a marriage of convenience lasting long without significant fractures, especially given the very real, IMO, possibility that the Kurds form a free state of there own, with sufficient oil wealth to not care about the rest of Iraq. There is very little in it for them to stick around, other than the current mantra, which many including you chant, that they can't be allowed a free state. They will get one eventually, and IMO, well deserve one. The battle is going to be Shia/Sunni, and given the population demographics and Iranian backing, the winners are pretty clear. We flushed secular Iraqis, women, and Sunnis down the toilet. Thats the net near to midterm results of this adventure. The long term results will be increased Shia power in the ME, with whatever that means.