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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 2:25:24 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

<The 13.6 million ounces (over 4.2 tons) is more than 2.5 years of their total production. > 2.5 years of production doesn't worry me much to be honest... not so far as default talk, etc..... not that I'd ever own the stock. Just think of where the stock would be trading with another few BILLION in revenue flowing in over the next 2.5 years!! Just a quick back of the envelope... if gold rockets another 100 points from here that's another 1.3 billion bucks... OUCH. But they presumably don't have the banksters breathing down their necks (margin call) yet... and they just took in over a 1.3 Billion in CASH if the Placer deal closes. Meanwhile every 6 MONTHs or so another 2 million OZ's come out of the ground and get delivered (using your numbers roughly... again I don't know bupkiss about ABX) turning nearly a billion of Butlers losses into a profit. Further more, if gold stays stable, ABX's profits will EXPLODE as these contracts are delivered and the new hedges go on (or they simply sell) at current prices. I'm not saying there won't be trouble at ABX, but it looks to me like you need a moonshot to make it happen... AND FAST. We can only hope. :__) DAK

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 2:39:08 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Snow: Economy near ´tipping point´ on wage growth Thursday, January 5, 2006 10:58:47 PM afxpress.com Snow: Economy near 'tipping point' on wage growth WASHINGTON (AFX) - Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday credited the 2003 tax cuts with spurring economic growth and predicted that wage growth would soon pick up amid a tightening labor market In remarks prepared for delivery to a U.S. Chamber of Commerce-sponsored forum, Snow said the economy is likely near a "tipping point" when it comes to wages "Once businesses have been doing well for a while, they ultimately complete those increases in income away by competing harder for labor. The result is higher wages and higher standards of living for workers," Snow said Snow highlighted a series of bullish economic indicators, including above-trend economic growth in 2005 and the creation of 4.5 million new jobs over the last two-and-one-half years Snow's remarks come as the administration embarks on a concerted push to claim credit for economic growth. President Bush is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economy Friday in Chicago Half empty or half full? But Democrats charged that Snow and the White House have offered an incomplete picture of the economy, charging that middle-class Americans have been left behind "While there are some positive economic developments, the state of our economy for middle-class families leaves too many squeezed between falling wages and rising prices for everything from health care to college tuition," Senate Democrats said in a report issued ahead of Snow's speech The report highlighted a number of unfavorable statistics, including rising college tuition fees, slow private-sector jobs growth compared to other economic expansions, and a decline in average, inflation-adjusted household income Polls have shown many Americans feel insecure about the economic outlook. Snow, in his prepared remarks, said he agreed with a newspaper columnist that the press finds good economic news unexciting The China issue In a question-and-answer session following his remarks, Snow said frustration with lawmakers and business leaders with China over currency levels, intellectual property theft and other issues was understandable, but emphasized that a measured response was in the America's best interests "While we need to get China to make changes ... it's important not to overreact" or risk a "very negative reaction" in global financial markets, he said Lawmakers have threatened to pursue punitive tariffs against China unless it takes action to allow its currency to fluctuate more widely against the U.S. dollar The Treasury Department in November declined to name China a currency manipulator, a label that would have triggered negotiations and possibly retaliatory U.S. action against Beijing. In July, China revalued its currency by 2.1% and scrapped an 11-year-old peg to the dollar, replacing it with a basket of currencies. Experts saw the change as a small move and that the yuan remains significantly undervalued against the dollar

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 12:59:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The Man Who Said No to Wal-Mart Every year, thousands of executives venture to Bentonville, Arkansas, hoping to get their products onto the shelves of the world's biggest retailer. But Jim Wier wanted Wal-Mart to stop selling his Snapper mowers. fastcompany.com

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 1:06:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Welcome to Mars express: only a three hour trip IAN JOHNSTON SCIENCE CORRESPONDENT AN EXTRAORDINARY "hyperspace" engine that could make interstellar space travel a reality by flying into other dimensions is being investigated by the United States government. The hypothetical device, which has been outlined in principle but is based on a controversial theory about the fabric of the universe, could potentially allow a spacecraft to travel to Mars in three hours and journey to a star 11 light years away in just 80 days, according to a report in today's New Scientist magazine. The US air force has expressed an interest in the idea and scientists working for the American Department of Energy - which has a device known as the Z Machine that could generate the kind of magnetic fields required to drive the engine - say they may carry out a test if the theory withstands further scrutiny. Professor Jochem Hauser, one of the scientists who put forward the idea, told The Scotsman that if everything went well a working engine could be tested in about five years. However, Prof Hauser, a physicist at the Applied Sciences University in Salzgitter, Germany, and a former chief of aerodynamics at the European Space Agency, cautioned it was based on a highly controversial theory that would require a significant change in the current understanding of the laws of physics. "It would be amazing. I have been working on propulsion systems for quite a while and it would be the most amazing thing. The benefits would be almost unlimited," he said. "But this thing is not around the corner; we first have to prove the basic science is correct and there are quite a few physicists who have a different opinion. "It's our job to prove we are right and we are working on that." He said the engine would enable spaceships to travel to different solar systems. "If the theory is correct then this is not science fiction, it is science fact," Prof Hauser said. "NASA have contacted me and next week I'm going to see someone from the [US] air force to talk about it further, but it is at a very early stage. I think the best-case scenario would be within the next five years [to build a test device] if the technology works." The US authorities' attention was attracted after Prof Hauser and an Austrian colleague, Walter Droscher, wrote a paper called "Guidelines for a space propulsion device based on Heim's quantum theory". news.scotsman.com

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 1:24:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

MicroSoft aids Chinese censors Microsoft Shuts Blog's Site After Complaints by Beijing nytimes.com

To: regli who wrote (43955)	1/6/2006 1:56:24 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Here is a really interesting article: mensnewsdaily.com <<<Hidden from many investors is the fact that the stock market rallies of 2003-2004 were fueled, in part, by the massive infusions of money into the money supply by the Fed, especially whenever the market stumbled and faltered. In February 2006, the Fed will stop publishing the M-3 data for the first time since the Federal reserve system was established in 1913. The timing of when M-3 data becomes hidden from the public also coincides withIran's waging a monetary war against the U.S. Petro-Dollar by trading its oil in Petro-Euros on its new Iran Petroleum Exchange beginning its operations in February 2006. If a substantial amount of oil transactions are suddenly conducted in Euros, it should put pressure on the Dollar as oil traders exchange Dollars for Euros, making the Dollar a less desired, less valuable currency. This, in turn, would make it more difficult for the Fed to print all the dollars it wants, without driving the value of USD down against other worlds' currencies. If the Dollar begins to drop, it may trigger a sell-off in treasury bonds, thus exacerbating the inversion of the yield curve. If treasuries sink, the current housing-driven economic boom may turn into a gloom. I have two theories about M3 neither of which is remotely close to what everyone thinks 1) The FED really does find it useless and that is why they stopped publishing it. I spoke to Kasriel about this and he agrees. However we both agree that the timing of the cancellation is suspicious. That leads us to ..... 2) The FED stopped publishing M3 because it is likely to implode in 2006 not explode. When you realize M3 measures credit and lots of things that are double counted, and not just money, then why can't credit implode in a big recession, perhaps shockingly so I think one or both of those is correct, perhaps #2 not by conspiracy but simply because the FED does not see what is coming. Least likley to me is what everyone believes: the FED purposely wants to hide some mammoth upcoming explosion in credit. I say we already had it. Mish