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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rink who wrote (182456)	1/6/2006 5:49:00 PM
From: KeithDust2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Rink, AMD releases their dual core Turion later this quarter. That would be a heck of a lot sooner than Keith expected it (Q3 '06) Not again, please. AMD has said for a very long time now that DC Turion would launch in H1/06. That is also what their roadmap has ALWAYS said, ever since it appeared on it in early 2005. I have never said that I expect they would miss their roadmap with DC Turion, which is what you implied above. That would be plain stupid, on what grounds could I possibly estimate that, and why, about a year before the supposed launch? In fact, my views and expectations for both AMD and INTEL are ALWAYS based upon their respective roadmaps and ramp schedules, and meeting them, not missing them. I´ve told you that in particular on I-Hub. I did however expect that Yonah would have a time to market (and not time to "introduction" or "launch", the instrument of "paper launches" or something close to that allows these dates to be fairly arbitrary and thus not relevant in the context I have in mind, see below) advantage over Taylor, despite being 65nm vs. Taylor´s 90nm, in terms of volume availability of notebooks powered by it in the marketplace, an expectation that many here didn´t agree with, even claiming AMD would beat INTEL to market there. As a result of the ttm advantage I expected something like this: pcmag.com Quite simply, SC Turion is no longer even remotely competitive performance-wise with INTEL´s Centrino in those typical, mainstream notebook reviews (Cnet, PC Mag etc.), apart from maybe single threaded games (but for example all of HP´s AMD notebooks have integrated graphics, INTEL´s often have discrete graphics, check the review). Just look at what is usually tested there. That is quite a difference compared to the last 8 months, and probably the performance difference in this power envelope (up to 35W) hasn´t been more pronounced in reviews than this for many years. I have also said that I really hope that AMD can pull in their ramp schedule somehow - it took quite some time to convince skeptics (including reviewers) that Turion could be a worthy competitor to INTEL´s offerings. The longer it takes AMD to respond, the bigger the chance that Turion´s reputation and sales momentum will be hampered. That´s the message I was trying to convey. If they couldn´t even launch DC Turion before Q3/06, that would imply a serious slip on AMD´s part compared to their roadmap up to this point, and I´d probably have to revise my expectation that Turion will continue to gain marketshare in 2006, despite Yonah. It takes AMD quite some time to ramp mobile products, unlike INTEL that expects more than 100 Yonah designs out this quarter already. It is my opinion that AMD can only effectively counter Yonah with volume market availability of DC Turion. And that is something I don´t really expect before H2, and that´s the other reason why I stressed the ttm advantage. Again, I´m NOT saying I expect the launch will be delayed to H2. These are two very different pairs of shoes (not sure if this saying exists in English). Try to remember last year´s Turion "milestones", DC Turion looks similar to me just a year later. I can only hope they´ll do better this time than they did back then, Turion did the "early work", this time it should be a matter of execution on AMD´s part, and their platform partners. Regards, Keith