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Strategies & Market Trends : Can you beat 50% per month? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (9214)	1/10/2006 6:37:47 PM
From: Garden Rose	Respond to of 19256

Scott, you are right about inflation. Slowly but surely it will reach all Americans. Took notice of a loaf of bakery bread at Walmart, always sold for $1.00, now it's $1.25, likewise cat food, up 20 cents or so. Little by little it slowly eats at the wallet. More to come. GR

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (9214)	1/11/2006 9:17:39 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19256

Drip...drip...drip DuPont Lowers 4Q Profit Outlook on Storms AP -- The chemical maker DuPont Co. said Wednesday that its fourth-quarter earnings will be well below its guidance, citing hurricanes, production disruptions and worse-than-expected performances in three businesses.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (9214)	1/13/2006 10:28:48 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19256

DOW 10959 - heading down to tgt by eod More inflation evidence revealed. Lots more to come at all levels. Those "excluding food and energy" numbers just don't cut it, as they effect everything else Wholesale Inflation, Retail Sales Climb Friday January 13, 10:06 am ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Wholesale Inflation Jumps in December on Gas Costs; Auto Sales Push Up Retail Demand WASHINGTON (AP) -- Soaring gasoline costs pushed inflation at the wholesale level up sharply in December, ending a year in which wholesale inflation rose at the fastest pace since 1990. The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index, which measures price pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.9 percent in December, the biggest increase since a 1.7 percent jump in September. The culprit in both months was a big surge in gasoline costs, which spiked above $3 per gallon in early September, reflecting lost Gulf Coast production following Hurricane Katrina. For all of 2005, wholesale prices rose by 5.4 percent. That was the biggest increase since a 5.7 percent increase in 1990, and another year in which surging oil costs pushed inflation higher. However, core inflation, excluding energy and food, was up a more moderate 1.7 percent in 2005, including a tiny 0.1 percent increase in December. In other economic news, retail sales posted a weaker-than-expected 0.7 percent increase in December, the Commerce Department reported, after rising by 0.8 percent in November. Excluding autos, consumer spending at retail stores was up an even more modest 0.2 percent following a decline of 0.4 percent in November. Those figures were seen as further evidence that retailers had a fairly lackluster Christmas sales season. But analysts expressed the hope that January sales will rebound as consumers spend the gift cards they got for Christmas. Those cards are not counted as a retail sale until they are redeemed. "Retailers continue to report good sales momentum in the post-holiday period, bolstered by gift card redemptions," said Michelle Girard, an economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. In a third report, the Commerce Department said that inventories held by businesses on shelves and backlots rose by 0.5 percent in November, slightly better than the 0.4 percent incease that Wall Street was expecting. Economists believe that a rebound in depleted business inventories in the closing months of 2005 will help support overall economic growth as the growth in consumer spending cools off. The 0.9 percent increase in wholesale prices in December followed a 0.7 percent plunge in prices in November. Economists had been expecting a rebound last month but the increase was more than double the 0.4 percent rise in the PPI they had been predicting. The increase was expected to keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradually moving interest rates higher to make sure that energy price pressures do not spill over into more broadbased inflation problems. The 0.7 percent increase for retail sales in December was below the 1 percent increase that many economists were expecting. Auto sales were up 2.6 percent after an even stronger 5.7 percent increase in November, finishing a year in which sales in this category surged in the summer because of attractive discounts, but then slumped in the early fall. The weak 0.2 percent rise in sales excluding autos was led by a 0.9 percent increase in sales at gas stations, an increase that was influenced by rising pump prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales rose a tiny 0.1 percent in December. Demand was flat at specialty clothing stores and fell by 0.3 percent at department stores and other general merchandise stores. Energy costs were up 3.1 percent in December, with the gain led by a 12.3 percent rise in gasoline prices, the biggest one-month jump since a 12.7 percent increase in September. Residential natural gas prices actually fell by 2.7 percent last month although analysts are warning that consumers are going to be hit by considerably higher home heating bills this winter, reflecting higher costs than a year ago for natural gas and home heating oil. Food costs rose by 0.9 percent in December, the biggest increase since a 1.4 percent jump in September. Vegetable prices were up 21.7 percent, reflecting higher costs for cauliflower, lettuce, eggplant, broccoli and tomatoes. Beef prices were up 2.4 percent but the price of processed chickens fell by 4 percent. Outside of food and energy, the 0.1 percent increase in the core inflation rate reflected a decline of 1 percent in light truck prices and a 0.2 percent fall in the price of new cars. The price of communication equipment was up 0.6 percent, the biggest rise since March 2003, while pharmacy products rose by 0.6 percent. The 5.4 percent increase for wholesales prices for all of 2005 followed a 4.1 percent 2004 increase. Both gains were the biggest since a 5.7 percent rise in 1990, a year when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait sent global energy prices soaring.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (9214)	6/16/2006 10:38:19 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 19256

What I've been seeing and saying for some time Inflation errantly reported and MUCH worse than govt stats. Went to California Pizza kitchen for dinner. They've raised their prices twice in last year or so But the most telling part is, my chicken sandwich wasn't much more than a chicken flavored roll. Seeing that at many restaurants. Message 22045316 Official Says Fed May Keep Raising Rates Friday June 16, 8:21 am ET By Kelly Olsen, AP Business Writer Fed May Have to Keep Raising Interest Rates if Inflation Persists in U.S., Official Says SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- U.S. inflation may be worse than what is showing up in government data and the Federal Reserve may have to keep raising interest rates if it persists, a Fed official said Friday. "It's, I believe, certainly my view that if the inflation rate continues to be persistent like this, the Federal Reserve will simply have to pursue persistently policies that will keep that inflation from increasing further," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole told reporters on the sidelines of a conference on monetary policy sponsored by the Bank of Korea. Poole, a nonvoting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, also described the U.S. economy as "fundamentally very robust." "Core inflation is modestly above what many of us have expressed as our comfort zone," Poole said, though the current inflation "situation is absolutely not dangerous." The U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday that its Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent last month, in line with expectations, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up a worse-than-expected 0.3 percent. Core prices are advancing at a 3.1 percent pace so far this year. That compares with a 2.2 percent increase in 2005. Poole said there is still some time to go before the Fed's next policy meeting on June 28-29. "There's still several weeks worth of information and a lot of expert analysis of the information we have," he said. "I have a very open mind about what the conclusion of that meeting, or what my position will be, going into that meeting." Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials have spurred widespread speculation that the U.S. central bank will raise the benchmark fed funds rate a quarter point to 5.25 percent at its next meeting. That would mark the 17th increase since June 2004. Inflation concerns in the United States, the world's largest economy, have contributed to declines in global markets in recent weeks amid perceived uncertainty about the Fed's intentions with interest rates. But markets got a boost after Bernanke said Thursday that record energy and commodity prices could account for some of the recent uptick in core prices but that inflation expectations have remained within historical ranges. Earlier, Poole said that more attention should be paid to informal sources of information in addition to official data to determine the true extent of inflationary pressure. "Statistical studies to detect pass-through from recent energy price increases have failed to show significant effects in U.S. price data," he said in an address to the conference. "But stories about widespread pass-through are becoming increasingly common." "We may face more inflation pressure than currently shows up in formal data," Poole said, emphasizing that his objective was "to make a general point and not to conduct a full analysis of the current situation." He also said that the views expressed in his speech were his own and "do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve system."