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To: The Freep who wrote (128072)1/14/2006 7:29:01 AM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Interesting question... BC will speak for himself, but I'd like to try.

Yes, this would help me for the next 3-6 months. I'd look for a rally. As for hints, a meaningful pullback about right now, which would once again fail to begin a new downtrend - and would be followed by an acceleration to new highs - would be a good indication. In other words, I'm talking about a "hound" out of the ED-like structure on the weekly SPX.

stockcharts.com[p,a]waclyyay[d20030609,20060109][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J49085868,Y]&listNum=1

Markets are a sensitive indicator of what is happening in the real world. If I decide that we are in a 4th, I'll plan my life - and advise my family - differently than if we were in a final 5th, and the proverbial you know what would be REALLY about to hit the fan.

Naturally, the issue would be - how do you tell a new high "B" from a new high "final 5th"? I have no answer right now, but hope to figure that out... "with a lil' help from my friends".... ;)



To: The Freep who wrote (128072)1/16/2006 1:35:11 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Freep, I think my perspective on Ewave is not what you'd find with most the practice the art. Unlike most, I believe that there are single actions or decisions that can create wave patterns. If somebody invented a limitless source of energy tomorrow, it would alter the wave pattern going ahead. Or, if the Fed fell asleep on the "BUY" button and jammed Fed funds to 0%, it would also create its very own wave.

The primary value of Ewave - in my opinion - is that the shape of waves permits one to distinguish between trending and corrective price action. Coming from an electronics background, I liken Ewave to a black box that shapes a wave applied at the input into the pattern observed at the output. In electronics, the box is filled with capacitors, resistors, and inductors, whereas in Ewave, the box is the sum of human emotional behavior. In either case, an understanding of what's in the box permits you to divine the stimulus applied at the input by only observing the output. And, knowing the stimulus gives one the ability to predict the near-term response.

How the hell does this answer your question? Well, I see a bubble that clearly did NOT burst in 2000. It shifted from one asset class to another. It is clearly much larger now, and has taken us from a few moderate economic imbalances to gross global economic distortions. The rational expectation which you won't hear from the mainstream is for eventual correction of those imbalances, and barring another asset class on which to sustain the beast, the bubble will collapse with the real estate market top. Now what I seek is an Ewave count that will predict what stock market behavior to expect around the turn.

If this is the orthodox bubble peak here, it should occur at the end of an impulsive fifth wave. It should have typical fifth wave characteristics, including non-confirmations and the potential for blowoffs, ending diagonals, and failed fifths. If correct, the count indicates that we should not expect a brother leg up to match the 2002-6 bull. And for me, it means the long-term risk/reward ratio is heavily slanted in favor of bearish positions.

I saw Ski's response and agree: it leads me to remain hedged for the potential of further market gains to cap off a true fifth wave impulse. But the biggest message is to prepare for the REAL bubble top, likely sometime this year.

BC