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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dr_elis who wrote (17205)	1/14/2006 11:01:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Mike, Digestion of past gains as well as a long weekend pretty much nailed dynamic run for this 2006 year. Monday markets are closed and Tuesday will give us a possible dip to play the Intel earnings announcement after the close on Tuesday. I thought Samsung's 8% reduction in Capex is not a big indicator of the industry in general- Even Intel slowed down afetr a record reinvestment.Samsung surprised most by their aggressive Capex last year - its prudent to digest their expansion before just running it up 2 years in a row.At least I'd hate to see it go that way - sureproof excess capacity soon. This is what should comfort markets - not depress them.Just a dip being fabricated by spin. Listening to Needham Growth conference - many equipment companies have indicated second tier Capex purchases and huge order increases.Axcelis noted an 85% increase in orders! Not a surprise as chip sales are at new records and diverging gizmos are prolifiic. These are good times, and I think we'll have one more nice wave up that could carry into early February. We'll then need to take some profits and buy the dip again after March 10th when semi equipment demand is reconfirmed by growing backlogs and continued better profitability. That's what my chrystal ball is telling me - I can't prove it buy I'm sticking to it.GG Bob RtS's Ihub charts show a typical knee down for a short time period and then I think we'll be well on out way to Bullish Per Cent high - which we need to sell nimbly into. Then wait for a nice dip and make a rerun on the same points made in January.