Re: It will be interesting if these two, Russia and China, will back Iran, where they both have extensive commercial interests, or if they will stand aside, perhaps reluctantly, as they did in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.
Like I said(*), Russia's support of Iran was never more than a hypocritical posture. Iran's one and only true ally is China and, unlike western pundits spin it, China's siding with Iran is not motivated by oil/energy interests only. The Chinese are all too aware that, after Iran, THEIR turn is next. If Iran, already an (central) Asian country, falls like a house of cards then nothing will stop the Pentagon hardliners from pushing their luck with China herself --be it over Taiwan or Tibet or North Korea. At that point, who/which country will stand up for China if China never stood up for anybody?
As for Russia, it doesn't take a geopolitics genius to figure out that she doesn't want a nuclear Iran in addition to a nuclear Pakistan, the combined power of which spreading all across Muslim Central Asia (Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Khazakstan, Uzbekistan,...)
Iran crisis talks expose west's split with China
· Europe seeks Tehran's referral to security council
· Major obstacles remain in row over nuclear weapons
Ewen MacAskill and Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow
Tuesday January 17, 2006
The Guardian
Differences between the west and Russia and China were exposed yesterday during a meeting in London to discuss strategy for tackling the crisis over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons programme.
After seven hours of talks Britain, France and Germany announced they are to seek Iran's referral to the security council at a meeting on February 2 and 3 of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Javier Solana, the EU foreign affairs chief, said he was "confident" Russia and China will back the referral.
But both countries expressed serious reservations about future handling of the crisis, in particular the prospect of the security council imposing sanctions on Iran.
Russia, though slowly shifting towards the west's position, is still holding out hope that Tehran may yet accept a compromise. China, which has close economic ties with Iran, is the most hardline in opposing tough action against Tehran.
One European diplomat said: "What is really crucial is support from Russia and China. China does not look too good. China is the major obstacle."
He added that China, which has a veto on the security council, felt squeezed between pressure from the west and dependency on Iranian oil.
A British diplomat said: "There was serious concern about Iranian moves to restart enrichment-related activities contrary to the appeals of the international community not to do so." He added that "there was a thorough exchange of views" on the role of the security council.
The crisis escalated last week when Iran broke seals on uranium enrichment equipment. Iran denies that it has a covert nuclear weapons programme.
The London meeting between senior officials from the US, Britain, France, China and Russia - the five permanent members of the UN security council - plus Germany, was held to try to avoid a repetition of the security council divisions that marked the run-up to the war in Iraq. The west's fear is that China could exercise its veto on Iran's behalf.
The Europeans have begun drafting a resolution to put before the IAEA. "It's short. It calls for [IAEA chief Mohamed] ElBaradei to report Iran to the UN security council," one diplomat said. The western nations have a simple majority in favour of referral but are hoping that Russia and China will back it. The US and Europeans are focusing on Russia in the hope that if Moscow backs their approach, then China will also follow.
President Vladimir Putin, after meeting Angela Merkel on her first visit to Moscow as German chancellor, signalled exasperation with Iran's decision to break the seals. Indicating he was moving towards the west's position, he said: "As for Russia, and Germany, and our European partners and the US, we have very close positions on the Iranian problem."
But he cautioned against "abrupt, erroneous steps" and suggested the issue could still be defused without reference to the UN. He said Iran has not excluded the possibility of accepting a Russian compromise in which Tehran would conduct uranium enrichment in Russia rather than Iran. "One of the main problems is the enrichment of uranium. We proposed to our Iranian partners to set up a joint enrichment venture on Russian territory ... our partners told us they did not exclude the implementation of our proposal."
But China, speaking before the London meeting, said resorting to the security council would "complicate the issue", citing Iran's threat to hit back by halting snap UN inspections at its atomic plants.
The Chinese foreign minister said "all relevant sides should remain restrained and stick to solving the Iranian nuclear issue through negotiations".
Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, said that dialogue with Moscow and Beijing was of "crucial importance".
Iran yesterday banned CNN journalists from the country after the broadcaster misquoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying that Iran wanted nuclear weapons, the ISNA students news agency said.
What happens next
Vienna Europeans plan emergency IAEA meeting on February 2. Iran will try to avoid referral to security council by reopening talks with Russia
New York Once before the security council, the resolution could tell Iran to suspend uranium enrichment. If ignored, talks would get tougher as US and Europe sought sanctions
Tehran Iran could then scrap deal on intrusive nuclear checks, and disrupt oil supplies if sanctions imposed
US/Israel Air strikes could begin to delay Iran's work on nuclear weapon.
guardian.co.uk
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