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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (269005)	1/18/2006 5:52:08 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573104

Wed., January 18, 2006 Tevet 18, 5766 How much can the lion be tickled? By Shmuel Rosner It might turn out to be an ironic twist of fate: An American president who went on an ambitious journey to change the face of the Middle East will leave office with a region that is, indeed, different - more dangerous than before. Ostensibly, the U.S. has the (military) might to act. But the constraints of diplomacy, budget, public opinion and price do not allow it enough room to maneuver. That is what the Iranians are probably counting on when they come out almost weekly to tickle the lion closer and closer to its teeth. The coming weeks will be decisive. The Iranians have done everything they can to elicit a response. If it does not come, the neighbors will also start looking for shortcuts to nuclear capability. The Russians and the Chinese, not the Americans or the Europeans, are the ones holding the key. The West, as always, is not quick to understand their motives and goals. The various UN missions have not yet received directives from home as to how to respond when and if the Iranian ball lands in the New York court. This is a game being played with the cards so close that even the emissaries to the Security Council will not be privy to it until they are told how to raise their hand. If it happens as early as February, it will be the American ambassador, John Bolton, who knows the Iranian president like the back of his hand, who will be presiding over the Security Council. Meanwhile, a number of scenarios are being bandied about. What kind of sanctions can be imposed if a majority votes for them? Will they be enough to deter Iran? What will happen to the Iranians if, for example, trade with Europe and Japan (but not with Russia and China, and perhaps not with India) stops? What will they do if it becomes difficult for them to buy refined oil? (The Iranians pump much more than they refine.) Can the many billions in Iranian funds deposited in foreign banks be frozen? And what can be done without international consensus? The road to the Security Council seems shorter now than it did a few weeks ago. But it is fast becoming clear that the Security Council is the means and not the end. The attitude of the U.S. (and of Israel) - "first let's get to the Security Council, and then we'll take it from there" - will hold out only until the day a compromise is reached. The Security Council members will then set a new, improved goal. Experience shows that it will not take a week, or a month. A heavy price will be paid to ensure that Russia and China do not stand in the way of action, and the price will be paid not even for a vote in favor, but merely for abstaining. Meanwhile, time is running on, and so are the Iranians. haaretz.com "A heavy price will be paid to ensure that Russia and China do not stand in the way of action,..." Indeed, and my bet is that Taiwan will be the tradeoff price.... Gus