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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (3662)	1/20/2006 11:31:21 PM
From: Crabbe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 221260

The twenty second century is 94 years away. 58 years ago the transistor was invented, 61 years ago the computer was invented. Today the transistor is the most manufactured item in the world, definitely 10^17 per year, probably 10^18 transistors per year, that is about 10 for every ant in the world. Soon they will have enough to build their own computer. There are more transistors manufactured in the last year than existed at the beginning of that year. The ENIAC built in 1945 was capable of just over 100 multiplies per second. the cheapest desktop available today can execute more than a billion, 1,000,000,000. Quantum computers have been built, when a 128 bit wide quantum computer is built, in one cycle it can break a code that would take all of the present computers in the world millions of years combined. Internet, server computers can examine 15 million data packets for viruses, router information, etc. per second. Video computers process pixel information at speeds Von Neuman computers are just not capable of. Neural networks make decisions that even the designers are not quite sure how they do it. Combining all of these and many new ones that will shortly be developed, such as perhaps a special purpose computer to parse a sentence. Will in most of our life times produce desktop computers, capable of intelligent conversation, self programming will give them the ability to solve all office tasks. The ultimate result will be IT, as Maurice is prone to calling a truly sentient computer. That will occur probably sometime in the 22nd century. But, we don't have to go that far to make computers competitive with the human mind to accomplish office tasks such as data research, business communication, accounting, payroll, etc.. Already computers have essentially replaced typing pools, stock brokers, half the accounting force, telephone operators, telephone receptionists, the list is long. 20 years, 30 years, 50 years, 100 years, what does the time factor matter? It is inevitable, it is obvious, and we are doing absolutely nothing to prepare for it. r