<<Well after all this time your gold is makin you look good>>
... so far so good, but the splendor is still ahead of us, I figure.
<<Congrats>>
... too soon for that, we are still at the bottom of the valley in the big picture. The only thing gold has now proven is that it is not dead after a long 5000 year life, in the BusinessWeek sense of the word, I reckon.
Gold, as money, has good genes, I suppose.
<<whatever happened to what's his name ? The demographic tells all and anti gold guy?>>
... AC Flyer, I think you mean. He dropped off sometime ago, probably due to bad positioning, as in having sold main residence house in Boston a ways back, getting in early on the demographically driven sale perhaps, I calculate :0)
His last predictive post was Message 21229910 [4/14/2005] "Fed about to cease raising the discount rate and the bond market utterly unperturbed by Uncle Al ... I'll remind you of this when the Dow makes a new high next year"
... and on the same day Message 21228543 "I maintain that one should project the primary trend line through ~ 2010 which would take the DOW to 25,000 - 30,000, at which approximate time the primary trend will change due to the start of a long-term secular decline in final demand in the US economy. So there ya go!"
I saw, and so as far as ...
<<....never around when it's gloating time>>
... it is possible that comrade AC Flyer has dropped off for the remainder of the Last Man Standing game, and will taunt no more, i suppose.
Which reminds me, we must remain as humble as we have been, which we do, because but for the will of almighty, we be gone as well. Whatever we do, it must be survivable, I remind myself not often enough.
Next roadmarker for me is QCOM, how it goes kaboom. I am figuring the edge of that event horizon is about 2008.
On gold, this road map still works for me Message 21941081 , and no, the USD will not drop by 95% against other major paper currencies in the same definition frame; it will not even drop by 35% against other paper money, I hope.
USD will simply drop by 95% vs gold, I count within 16 years, by the time the demographic selling is well under way, and the Coconut is going to college.
As attractiveness of education (thus its cost justification) is sometimes about paper money earning power in the future, education cost will at least keep pace with paper money inflation, say 10% per annum.
If so, for gold to keep pace, it needs to do a 4.59 fold increase in price from current spot of 560, thus at 2,573 in Year 16.
Thus, if we reach USD 10k for gold, I would beat inflation.
Using peak gold price, say 800 back in 1980-81, and applying an annual inflation of 6% (4.29 fold increase over 25 years), brings us to 3,4xx.
I ask myself, will gold match its old peak in inflation adjusted dollars at some point during the next 16 years? Almost certanly, the way things are going.
So, gold at USD 560 is between a "curiosity" and a "bargain" by my road map to glory.
Gold at 10k is actually a very conservative guess, if financial rules of thumbs and toes are of any validity at all.
Iran? there will be more of Iraqs, and so Iran getting T-ed up would not be out of the question, even though it would be even less wise to tee it up as compared to Iraq.
Chugs, J |
