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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (50992)	1/23/2006 3:38:22 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You are right a long term cycle top in fed funds usually is the bottom for stocks and bonds. We are a generation away from that happening again..

To: GraceZ who wrote (50992)	1/23/2006 3:57:42 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<FF up to 19.10 back in 1981> That is a good point Grace. I doubt that a sharp move in the near future up to that level would be a sign of "strength" in the US economy, but you are right to point out that we have been there before. I don't recall the US shouldering a $700 billion per year capital import habit at that time, but the inflationary trend was extraordinarily powerful and you are quite right to point out the role of a high FF rate to set the stage for a more durable period of economic growth.

To: GraceZ who wrote (50992)	1/23/2006 6:06:45 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"The dollar then resumed it's rise against other currencies, after faltering during the 1970s." No, the dollar didn't resume its rise, it continued to fall with the notable exception of the British pound. Yes, it tanked in the seventies, then recovered somewhat in the early to mid 80s because of very high interest rates. Then tanked again after 1985, then rallying after the mid 90s before faltering again. The dollar's trend against hard currencies has been consistently DOWN and not "resuming a rise". EDIT Since 1970, the dollar has lost 72% of its value against the Yen, 73% against the SFr and 62% against the Euro/German Mark. Not exactly a rising trend. Japanese Yen sharelynx.com Swiss Franc sharelynx.com German Mark sharelynx.com British Pound sharelynx.com