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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (9225)	1/24/2006 6:06:41 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12411

Hi Chip and Pat, I'll add my 2 cents. I think the interest rate differentials between US and Yen,Sterling,Euro will close substantially in the next 12-18 months. I believe this will crush the dollar and the Asians will be pressed to keep their currencies as low as they artificially are right now - it will become even tighter. With a cheap dollar our small cap industrial companies, will benefit from an export boom and the trade deficit will become closer -ultimately bringing about a somewhat stronger dollar. The higher oil goes - the lesser our trade deficit will grow,as we Americans eventually will become efficient minded either by changing preferences or implemanting technology - actually a blend of both will be powerful. Just as we know energy will never get cheap again,our consumption will plateau and non Opec supply will grow-as so too will Opec Supply. Then we'll have us an economy that will just plain rock on cheap energy (like a tax cut to the consumer) and rates will go up again to cool things off. That's when we want to call our capital gains from equities and run to the TIPS. I can't prove it,but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Bob Rebuttal welcome

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (9225)	1/26/2006 12:23:13 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Pat those pattern logs were powerful tools... You traded in a very high powered and intense style... I can understand why you've moved on to lighter fare. Tom of course just pushed a button on his system... then took off for his porch rocking chair and mint juleps... waited for 50 ticks to push the next button. As to the markets... oil seems to be over done.... and I get the feeling the stock markets will receive a lot of the money flow while interest rates decline and the dollar stays strong... when that ends we'll have the next tri-fector. I'll try and post some charts to support this down the road.