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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (6835)1/31/2006 12:01:26 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15851
 
Webmasterworld has plenty of posts that confirm the finding that GOOG crushed yahoo this quarter. MSN, wow they are so far behind its not even worth mentioning and that John Battelle post last night about MSN being a year away from an affiliate network is amazing to me.

From where I sit there are only 3 outcomes for todays numbers:

1. GOOG reports a disappointing quarter which basically confirms the underlying theme on the street today (created by the msn/yhoo miss)- that the entire market for internet ads is slowing. In this case GOOG falls hard, probably to 360 or so with a magnet around the 380-400 range.

2. GOOG reports good numbers, but not good enough on the revenue side to mitigate the fears that the internet ad pie is slowing. In that case it depends on the cost controls and P&L goog reports. A rally but how much of one we don't know.

3. GOOG reports a quater that is so strong on the revenue side that it removes any fear that the internet pie is slowing and at the same time confirms that GOOG knocked out whatever remnants of their competition that still existed. In this case I think we rally hard, maybe even 100 pts. I think there is a serious possibility of this happening.

For all of these and for this quarter more than last, revenues really matter.

I am long like always so hoping for the best.

I still think Kessler from the S&P is a complete idiot. After this massacre anybody that thinks AdCenter is even relevant needs their head examined.