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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.E.Currie who wrote (6727)	2/7/2006 11:55:42 AM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25575

Thanks for that post, J.E. I used that - and my other study - to push me into my first position in BMD. My notes: Message 22140984

To: J.E.Currie who wrote (6727)	2/7/2006 2:04:45 PM
From: aldim1138	Respond to of 25575

Great board you guys have going here. Started looking into CanWest(OilSands Quest) which has the old PowerMax Energy land leases. Trying to find out if the 5 year clock for getting into production has started. I think that was the provincial mandate but having some difficulty verifying this. Six holes (of planned 25) in three months is too few by far. Still going thru DD on CanWest but thinking this is too small an outfit to open up so much acreage. Now if Suncor were to wander up the Clearwater River...

To: J.E.Currie who wrote (6727)	3/16/2006 2:07:40 PM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 25575

BMD post from Yahoo board: Mike Berry's comments on BMD this AM by: goldseverum 03/16/06 09:50 am Msg: 6569 of 6573 BIRCH There is much anguish on Wall Street over the recent decline of Birch Mountain’s shares. In fact it is not a decline that we are witnessing. It is, instead, volatility. As you can see there have been several previous declines in the shares, after which the stock rebounded. I met with CEO Doug Rowe last Thursday when he visited investors and funds in New York. The Birch story is just beginning. In fact they are only in the second inning. The tailwinds are so strong in the Athabasca for the bitumen in the oil sands (I visited CanWest in early February) that Birch has the potential to become another Canadian Oil Sands Trust. That status is down the road, to be sure. However, this is a cash business with so much product potential, so much future demand potential and virtually no competition that it is a “no-brainer.” We should give thanks to the Creator for this buying opportunity. Birch Mountain will release an updated pre-feasibility study within the next month or so. I cannot help but believe that it will be significantly larger than the previous study. Therefore I think it will likely be a catalyst for a higher share price. When I completed the very first report on the company in September 2004, I thought aggregates might account for 40% to 50% of revenues. These are Birch’s lowest value products. Now, based on the Birch meetings last week in New York, I think that aggregate products will generate the same $ revenue, but that it will comprise only 20% to 30% of the total potential revenue by 2010. For example, the company has revealed publicly that it may move quickly on the development of a cement plant. This effort has the support of the government of Alberta. The province has only two cement plants. Do you get the picture? $17 trillion must be spent, according to the G8 on energy projects worldwide by 2030. Yes, Virginia there is a Santa Claus. It is the strong energy tailwind now blowing at Birch Mountain’s back in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada. I wish I could take some of the Wall Street worriers up to see the oil sands. It would change their state of mind instantaneously. With a new valuation imminent (new prefeasibility) I recommend Birch Mountain as a strong buy. Suit yourself. I own shares in Birch Mountain Resources and I am not selling. I still believe the shares have $15 to $20 potential by 2010. Edit: Other snips of interest. Additional by: mark_meldrum2000 03/16/06 01:39 am Msg: 6558 of 6573 However, don't expect much from the upcoming earnings release as far as it relates to stock price effects. Birch did complete its project ahead of schedule but not early enough to have generated any cash flow from operations. I believe this is expected. Further, my information indicates that no guidance for 2006 will be given this month. This will happen sometime after May 06. As far as this past price effect being related to RBC's Underperform rating, my research indicates that analysts ratings have an effect the day or two before (RBC would have obviously shared their report with their internal clients first before street release) and for up to five days after. Ratings from star analysts that are at the more extreme ends (Buy, Sell) have a much more enduring effect especially for a firm that lacks wide coverage. RBC offered neither an extreme rating nor a star analyst. This price effect is not a systemic effect of the RBC coverage. While I am on the subject of the RBC report, the analyst did have very good things to say about BMD. He recognized their ability for superior ramp up growth over the next 2 to 5 years. His concern was with the $90/ton price advantage due to BMD's location. He is suggesting that if BMD's competitors switched to rail transportation, they could narrow that advantage to $30/ton. The threat to the profit margin caps potential net. However, what the analyst did not consider is delivery to the rail yard and pick-up at the other end. These two factors will have the effect of actaully widening the advantage above $90/ton. Now, the competition can always utilize their own fleet for rail delivery, but who will be at the other end to complete the job? Sometimes, either through inexperience or laziness, analysts are quick to jump to conclusions on a logistical analysis that still leaves the cost per ton more expensive and forgets that the product has to actually get to the final customer. What we are left with in the end is a weak argument for Underperform. BMD's advantage is clearly logistical, vis-a-vis the competition. Door-to-door, not door-to-rail, rail-to-rail, then finally rail-to-door. I have a great contact in the logistics industry and we have discussd this issue. His experience tells me that incresed handling will offset any cost savings from alternative shipping. Nothing can beat door-to-door. Look for BMD to recover slowly over the next week. I believe it will return to the $6.50 to $7.00 range by Friday. However, there is the danger that the institutional manipulation may have another round. My advice, lacking any clear news to support price moves in either direction is to just hang on. After all, if you can't take the stormy weather every now and then, get off the ocean. In sum, I am still very bullish on the stock. I expect guidance, when released to lift this stock into double digits. It would be a shame to leave the marriage now over a misunderstanding, don't you think? Intelligence?? by: mark_meldrum2000 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/16/06 01:38 am Msg: 6557 of 6573 WOW! Not a lot of intelligent people here. This message board seems to be directed towards mindless propoganda, scare tactics, hideen agendas, and the like. Well then, when the children are misbehaving, its time for the adults to step in. A large drop with increased volume and the lack of news always signals a buying opportunity. When you look at the size of the transaction that created the initial drop, they did not come from individual traders. There is an institutional player out there somewhere. The drop in price was most likely intentional but not to the degree from Monday's open. The drop was probably enough to trigger a bunch of stop loss orders. Notice how the price hit $5.50 and immediately bounced back to $6.00. Now today it is also up on higher volume than average. BMD is releasing 2005 year-end on or before March 27, Q1/06 in May and 06 guidance in Q2. I have a sizable position in BMD and I viewed this as an excellent opportunity to add to my holdings.