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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (46171)	2/9/2006 5:11:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

CORRECTION - UK new construction orders up 12 pct yr-on-yr in Q4 Thursday, February 9, 2006 12:41:36 PM afxpress.com (Correcting to show 12 pct quarterly rise is from Q4 2004, not from Q3 2005) LONDON (AFX) - New construction orders in the UK rose by 12 pct in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier and were up 7 pct over 2005 as a whole from the previous year, figures from the Department of Trade and Industry showed Orders were up 7 pct in the fourth quarter from the third quarter The fourth quarter saw decreases in private housing, infrastructure and public non-housing orders offset by increases in public housing, private industrial and private commercial orders, the DTI said

To: regli who wrote (46171)	2/9/2006 5:12:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Awful results in UK´s trade in goods deficit (UPDATE) Thursday, February 9, 2006 12:35:15 PM FXstreet.com FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The office for National Statistics publicized that the trade in goods deficit for the year rose to a top 65.5 bln stg from the previous high of 60.4 bln in 2004. The deficit over the year was worth 5.4 pct of UK GDP and was the highest since 1974's 6.3 pct. This downwards tendency hit too the goods and services deficit that rose to an unprecedented record of 47.6 bln stg. Talking about the goods side of the trade figures, the statistics office said too that the oil account was in surplus by 0.3 bln stg in December, making up for the corresponding deficit in November. This enhancement came in a bigger part from the close of the maintenance work on UK oil fields. Over the fourth quarter, the deficit on trade in goods was unchanged at 17.2 bln, with the moderate improvement of the EU counterbalanced by the widening non-EU trade breach. The future of the UK exportations is quite uncertain; this could lead to a loss of the economic competitivity. "December's trade data supported the message from yesterday's industrial production figures that the economy is unlikely to rebalance away from the consumer and towards the external sector any time soon," said Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics. "For now, these data are a stark reminder to the MPC that the economy is still dangerously reliant on the consumer sector, which still has problems of its own," he concluded.

To: regli who wrote (46171)	2/9/2006 5:15:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

DATAWATCH UK failing to rebalance as 2005 trade in goods deficit hits record Thursday, February 9, 2006 11:25:45 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy's reliance on the consumer to generate growth was further illustrated this morning with the news that the country recorded its biggest ever trade in goods deficit during 2005 The office for National Statistics revealed that the trade in goods deficit for the year rose to a record 65.5 bln stg from the previous high of 60.4 bln in 2004 as the high value of the pound depressed exports for the bulk of the year, though there was a healthy 3.5 pct monthly improvement in December The deficit over the year was worth 5.4 pct of UK GDP and was the highest since 1974's 6.3 pct Meanwhile the total goods and services deficit also struck a new all-time high of 47.6 bln stg, up from the previous high of 39.0 bln in 2004. The total for the year accounted for 3.9 pct of UK GDP, the highest since 1989's 4.1 pct "December's trade data supported the message from yesterday's industrial production figures that the economy is unlikely to rebalance away from the consumer and towards the external sector any time soon," said Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics "For now, these data are a stark reminder to the MPC that the economy is still dangerously reliant on the consumer sector, which still has problems of its own," said Capital Economics' Dales Yesterday, the statistics office revealed that the index of industrial production stood at 98.6 in 2005, its lowest level since 1995's 97.3, when the UK was last emerging from recession -- the base year is 2002. Over 2005 as a whole, industrial production, which accounts for around 20 pct of UK GDP, was 1.7 pct lower than the year before despite signs of a global economic recovery Despite mounting concerns about the UK's non-consumer sectors, analysts doubt that the overall trade situation will prompt a change in policy at the Bank of England in the short term, which today is expected to keep its key repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct for the sixth month running However, in the longer term it may become more of an issue, said Jonathan Said, economist at the Centre for Economic and Business Research "If economic growth loses steam in the second half of the year, the trade deficit will back the argument for lower rates," he said There are hopes that the ongoing improvement in the euro zone economy, particularly in Germany, the currency bloc's largest single economy, will help drive an improvement in the trade numbers in the month to come However, Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight said the latest survey evidence from the Confederation of British Industry and the purchasing managers offer conflicting evidence on the strength of export orders for manufacturers in January

To: regli who wrote (46171)	2/9/2006 5:19:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ECB says it will ´exercise vigilance´ on inflation risks [This talk is total horseshit. The risk of inflation is because of rapidly rising money supply and credit no oil prices. Mish] Thursday, February 9, 2006 9:24:19 AM afxpress.com ECB says it will 'exercise vigilance' on inflation risks FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said it will be exercise vigilance on inflation risks The central bank often uses such language to signal that it is preparing to raise interest rates "The governing council will exercise vigilance so as to ensure the solid anchoring of long-term inflation expectations at levels in line with price stability," the ECB said in its February monthly bulletin The bulletin echoes comments made by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet at last week's ECB news conference The ECB said vigilance is warranted because of the historically low levels of nominal and real euro zone interest rates and the overall accommodative stance of its monetary policy It said indirect effects from past oil price rises and already announced changes to regulated prices and indirect taxes can be expected to have an upward impact on euro zone inflation in the years ahead Risks to the inflation outlook remain on the upside, particularly from further oil price rises or knock-on effects onto wages and other prices "It is indeed essential that such risks do not affect medium and long-term inflation expectations, which need to remain firmly anchored at levels consistent with price stability," it said The ECB said recent data have broadly confirmed that the euro zone recovery is improving and broadening, despite some volatility in quarterly growth rates

To: regli who wrote (46171)	2/9/2006 5:20:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Jan house prices down 0.4 pct from Dec - Halifax UPDATE Thursday, February 9, 2006 8:56:18 AM afxpress.com (Adds analyst comment) LONDON (AFX) - The recovery in the UK housing market appeared to suffer a setback in the new year, according to a key housing market survey According to data from HBOS PLC unit, Halifax, the average house price in January fell 0.4 pct from December for a 5.1 pct annual increase. The monthly fall is the first since May 2005 The average house price now stands at 170,833 stg compared with 171,362 in December. The monthly fall is below expectations of a modest increase of 0.5 pct. The annual rate, meanwhile, also comes in below predictions of a 5.5 pct gain Martin Ellis, Halifax chief economist was relatively upbeat despite the monthly decline. "Despite this fall, prices have increased by 1.6 pct over the past three months as the market has strengthened. A mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a slow housing market," he pointed out Howard Archer at Global Insight said the figures are a "welcome dose of reality." "The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months," he added Halifax expects the market to be flat in 2006 with modest nominal house price growth. UK house prices are forecast to rise 3 pct in 2006, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation It added that the elevated level of house prices in relation to earnings, will dampen housing demand in 2006. Both council tax and utility bills are expected to rise well above inflation in 2006, putting pressure on household finances The recent media reports about significant increases in fuel bills - in the 20-25 pct range - highlight this issue, Halifax said Meanwhile, the number of first time buyers in UK fell to a 25-year low in 2005. Although the first time buyers number did start to pick-up slightly in the second half of 2005 and is expected to continue during 2006, it added. Additionally, the housing market remains well underpinned by a combination of ongoing economic expansion, high employment and historically low interest rates, Halifax said In December, Halifax reported that average house prices climbed 1.0 pct from the previous month for a 5.1 pct annual gain The latest figures cut against the grain of other surveys and data about the property market In its monthly survey of the sector released last week, Nationwide Building Society said house prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose 1.4 pct in January from the previous month, up from December's 0.5 pct rise The increase was the biggest since July 2004 and was also well ahead of expectations