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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (4212)2/11/2006 8:40:19 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217749
 
Dubai Elmat's first Report: As you know the whole place is a construction site. But I think there's a trick:

Even though the buildings are springing up like mushrooms, thet rent is very high. All payments yearly in advance:

USD2.700 monthly for tiny furnished 1BR apt. Long term is USD2027 monthly.

3BR Villa is USD2700 unfurnished /year.

Hotels are also very expensive. Some people here told me the buildings go up and then are left empty.

I believe there's -something only TJ could possibly have devised- cooking behind that.

People said to me: Real state developers are holding empty properties. As a result rent gets high and higher. People arriving here, calculate that is better to buy rather than rent since, for sale, there are lots of properties on the market.

This people who are buying, do so in the belief that once they move over to other places or back to their country of origin, they woould rent or sell property very easy, since they know how hard was for them to try find a property when they came here.

I'm not very sure how those schemes work, but everything comes to an end.

I'm thinking here the property boom is feeding on itself: There's need for a lot of expats to build buildings and offices. To expand public utilities to power, provide pother sewage. Build new roads infrastructure. Power plants. (Just for your info: A new USD3.7bn subway is about to start construction. A new 3G wireless network just starting implementation. Sports facilities, amusements parks, new airport)

Once everything that needs to be constructed is up and running, the real state masters, having made a killing, download the property in the market and move on. Everyone who had a property soon see that prices plummet.

To sweet the deal, cars are dirty cheap and gasoline is USD1/gallon. All kinds of goodies are tax free and malls are being constructed com gusto.

I asked a taxi driver: But how about this lots of people we see around here? He says: Lots working. Most tourists in shopping sprees. Permanent residents only some Americans and Europeans.

Have to add something:

Most of the people that live on those properties are young couples. Thirty something with little kids. I guess those unexperienced are the ones that are going to be fleeced.

They came and see the possibility of having a suburban life, with big SUV and one day they can cash in on the savings piled up in the housing estate they've bought.

Which is tempting (for the unexperienced. They see: good life here and on top of that sell your savings -your property- and get money to come back home and buy there??
Sounds like a can't miss opportunity.

Villas to let:

gulfnews.com

Villas for sale:
gulfnews.com



To: TobagoJack who wrote (4212)2/11/2006 4:25:12 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217749
 
TJ, it seems that Tarken-san and I bought all the Livedoor shares that day [on the USA market]. It is obviously not strongly followed in the USA.

Our broker had trouble finding a market maker to do the deal.

It's my first entry into the Japanese market so it's a novel experience. I would prefer to be able to read Japanese, but having a translator and trusted business advisor is near enough, especially since he spent a year working a few metres away from Horie and has a reasonable understanding of what Livedoor, Horie and Japan are about.

Maybe I should deplete more of my USD while the getting is good, though I'm loathe to go to wallop amounts for something I know so little about. In reality, I know little about everything; even if I know 100 times as much about QCOM, it's still little and perhaps not the bits and bytes of knowledge I need. My experience has been that knowing little doesn't seem to make me do any worse than knowing a lot. Mostly, if I'm in tune with the surging mobs [meaning, out of synch], I do just fine.

I prefer to kid myself with loads of due diligence that I have got it all figured out.

From what I can gather, the charges [which haven't yet been laid and they'll have to hurry as they have to let Horie out soon if they don't come up with something, even if it's just a parking ticket], are at worst technicalities and at best absurdities.

For example, apparently he split Livedoor stock to boost the share price. Omigosh! Not only that, but he bought a company planning to use its profits to make Livedoor's profits look better. Oh no!!! It's almost like USA companies which try to make money for shareholders not managers. How awful. And apparently they didn't take out advertisements that they partly owned some company that another company they partly owned was taking over, and sold a company for a profit, or part of it. Or something. It didn't seem too dire to me.

His main crime seems to have been annoying the people who think they are running Japan Inc. A bit like Ron Brierley in New Zealand in the 1960s and 1970s rampaged across the corporate landscape, buying, firing, refinancing, leveraging, buying, firing, restructuring and generally disrupting the comfortable old boys club of mutual back scratching and shareholder burgling. Or, like Kirk Kerkorian, T Boone Pickens, Carl Icahn and other corporate raiders, who really annoy establishment people.

I used to worry about assassination by bomb in Tarken-san's workspace by some angry desperado who was offended by Horie. A bit like the bomb in Hitler's bunker missed Adolf as somebody moved the briefcase to the other side of a table support, but killed others. A bomb killed Ernie Abbot <... on 27 March 1984, I was living in Wellington, and was on my way down the Petone motorway to go to a meeting of the Wellington Trades Council, where I was a delegate from the railway workers union. On my car radio I heard about a bombing at the Wellington Trades Hall. One of the people I expected to see at that meeting was the caretaker of the hall, Ernie Abbott, whom I knew well and talked to a lot. When I arrived at the meeting, I heard that he had been blown up by a terrorist bomb.> vdig.net Another was the frog-man and frog-woman French government's terrorist attack on the Rainbow Warrior, which killed a photographer.

People do kill other people in jealous, envious, greedy, vengeful and angry fits.

I expect Horie will be free again soon enough to get back to having a LOT of fun. The authorities will be over-stepping sensible bounds in an effort to do him in, legally, rather than via criminal attack; though authorities often conduct criminal acts in an attempt to attack people they dislike. Lying in court cases is common. Planting of evidence popular. King George II didn't plant WMDs in Iraq, perhaps because it was too difficult to make it look legitimate. Anyway, he'd planted enough "intelligence" to justify the war in the first place so more would have been overkill, if that's not an insensitive expression.

Anyway, I have depleted my USD a little with a tranche of Livedoor at 85c. I am hoping my tranche will turn to a wallop, with no further input. Horie wants to have the world's biggest market capitalisation. He's still young enough to do it, aged 33. Ambition is a good place to start. Combine that with energy, talent, charm, and a tranche, or wallop, of luck and a lot is doable.

Mqurice



To: TobagoJack who wrote (4212)2/11/2006 7:09:29 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217749
 
Hello Maurice, this here is also fun to watch ... apparently Chinese companies cannot sell things cheap ... on dumping pretext, and cannot sell expensive, on anti-trust excuse.

In a nut shell, China must supposedly revalue its currency, and still sell its manufacturing at the old USD prices, but not too low so that it is dumping.

At the rate events are developing, soon all prices will rise dramatically in the US, due to trade barriers and kaboom of the USD.

I am loving it. Volatility straight ahead, one awful way or another terrible path, leading to crisis.

online.wsj.com

"As China's Trade Clout Grows,
So Do Price-Fixing Accusations

Manufacturers of Vitamin C And Mineral Used in Steel
Are Cited in U.S. Civil Suits
The Opposite of Dumping
By JOHN R. WILKE in Washington and KATHY CHEN in Beijing
February 10, 2006; Page A1

Ten years ago, China's pharmaceutical firms had a sliver of the world's market for vitamin C. Today, China is the OPEC of vitamin C.

Chinese manufacturers currently supply more than 85% of the vitamin C used in the U.S. Just like the oil cartel, they can heavily influence world prices. After a 2001 agreement among China's four largest producers, spot prices for vitamin C rose to as high as $9 a kilogram from lows of less than $3.

Cooperation among competitors is illegal in the U.S. when it leads to higher prices for consumers. So far, about half a dozen civil antitrust suits have been filed against Chinese vitamin C manufacturers in various U.S. courts. Federal prosecutors in Texas are reviewing similar allegations, though the Justice Department hasn't yet decided whether or not to pursue criminal charges, people close to the inquiry say.

As China becomes ever more dominant in manufacturing, its ability to dictate the prices of industrial and consumer products is steadily rising. As a result, Chinese manufacturers are increasingly running afoul of Western antitrust law in products from vitamin C to a mineral used in steel production. These legal struggles could become another point of tension in the U.S.-China relationship, which has been tested by disagreements over matters from textile tariffs to the trade deficit.


Chinese companies deny breaking U.S. law and have hired U.S. law firms to mount a defense. The companies are expected to argue they are acting as agents of the Chinese government and therefore aren't subject to antitrust law. A Chinese industry executive says the companies raised prices to stave off accusations they were "dumping," or illegally selling products abroad at below cost to win market share.

There are signs the vitamin C model is migrating to other Chinese exports. In a meeting of Chinese makers of the pain reliever acetaminophen, the companies "fervently indicated their wish to use the example of vitamin C industry self-regulation," according to minutes posted on the group's Web site. Prices subsequently jumped 20%. Chinese makers of saccharin, rayon and magnesite -- a mineral used in steel production -- recently formed similar alliances. Magnesite producers also are being sued in the U.S.

In the case of saccharin, Chinese producers had been accused by the U.S. Commerce Department of dumping. Then in March 2003, five companies formed a "Saccharin Sub-committee" of the China Chamber of Commerce, a quasigovernment body. They declared that low prices no longer made sense now that they had overtaken their U.S. and South Korean rivals.

"Due to disorderly internal competition...various enterprises lost huge profits" and had to pay antidumping duties levied by the U.S., according to minutes of the meeting posted on the group's Web site. The companies agreed to raise export prices and said "self-regulation should continue into 2004 to prevent the mutual slaughtering of aggressive competition."

William Isaacson, a Washington lawyer who filed the first of the civil lawsuits against Chinese producers of vitamin C and magnesite, says these aren't isolated instances. "Once Chinese companies can control a market, this becomes their business model," he contends. His vitamin C case is pending in federal court in Brooklyn, N.Y. The magnesite case was filed in U.S. District Court in Newark, N.J.

American courts have been increasingly willing to claim jurisdiction across international borders in antitrust cases if harm can be shown to U.S. consumers. U.S. companies that use vitamin C include makers of dietary supplements, soft drinks and animal feed.

Monopolies remain active in parts of China's economy, even though price-fixing was formally outlawed in 1998. A sweeping new antimonopoly law is being drafted in Beijing. Its adoption has been slowed by squabbling among Chinese government agencies forced to give up the ability to set prices. It isn't clear if the new law would bar price collusion in the vitamin market.

China's state-run pharmaceutical companies began making vitamin C in 1958 catering to domestic demand. In the late 1970s, Chinese government researchers found a way to speed up the basic production process, which is done by fermenting ascorbic acid. Chinese companies then could make vitamin C in two steps rather than five, as was common in the West.

Looking Abroad

Vitamin C, thus, was among the first Western drugs for which China developed its own intellectual property and a clear cost advantage over foreign rivals. With its new technology, Chinese producers began to look for sales abroad. The promise of export profits attracted new producers. Production lines multiplied and volume soared.

Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co. was one of the first to begin exporting. Based in the gritty industrial city of Shenyang, 800 miles northeast of Beijing, Northeast is among the biggest Chinese vitamin C producers and boasts that it is one of China's best-known pharmaceutical brands. It employs 8,000 workers making products from antibiotics to the AIDS drug AZT. Vitamin C is its best seller, with more than 15,000 tons a year under production.

China's vitamin makers got a big break in 1997, thanks to an earlier antitrust dispute. After a long investigation, the U.S. Justice Department accused European and Japanese companies of price-fixing in a dozen vitamins, including vitamin C. It became the largest-ever criminal antitrust case, resulting in nearly $1 billion in government fines and several jail terms for executives.

With the European-Japanese cartel broken, Chinese companies flooded the market with low-price vitamin C, forcing plant closings and consolidation among European and Japanese firms. Chinese companies, who previously had been overshadowed by their bigger rivals, quickly captured much of the world market.

Prices fell sharply from the high of $12 a kilo established by the European and Japanese cartel members in 1996. By late 2001, competition pushed prices down to $2.80 a kilo. (A kilogram equals 2.2 pounds.)

People familiar with the matter say China's vitamin C makers were told at that time by the Chinese government to deal with Western complaints about price dumping. They say the companies took that to mean they should coordinate to raise prices.

Ma Xiaoye, director of independent think tank Shanghai Academy for World Watch and a former Chinese trade official, says the government routinely encourages Chinese companies to "coordinate" to avoid price wars that often spark antidumping charges, a practice he says is legal. He says these requests aren't binding and that the groups don't usually set specific prices.

Mr. Ma says these efforts often don't result in any agreement. "Vitamin C was an exception, because there are only a few companies," Mr. Ma says. "It was easier" for them to agree on an approach.

In November 2001, the four largest Chinese producers formed the Vitamin C Chapter of the China Chamber of Commerce of Medicines & Health Products Importers & Exporters. On its Chinese-language Web site, the chapter announced a "self-discipline agreement...to stabilize and raise export prices."

Soon after, spot prices for vitamin C shot up to as high as $7 a kilo. By 2003, rising demand and supply shortages pushed the price higher.

Guan Ningyun, legal director of the China Chamber of Commerce of Medicines & Health Products Importers & Exporters denies the group sets prices, saying in an interview that "it's the market force that pushes prices up."

The rise enticed a few Chinese producers to grab market share by cutting their prices, according to the U.S. civil suits. U.S. import data show a noticeable price dip in mid-2003.

In November, the Vitamin C trade group held an "emergency meeting" in which members again agreed not to cut prices, according to allegations in the U.S. civil suits. Spot prices rose to as high as $9 a kilo by the end of December. As U.S. lawyers readied lawsuits at the end of 2004, prices again drifted downward. It also is possible that some Chinese producers were backsliding on their promises. In recent months, as antitrust scrutiny increased, U.S. prices have fallen to as low as $3.80 a kilo.

Bulk purchasers of vitamin C in the U.S. were buffeted by the price swings. "We were paying about $4 a kilo, then within a year it was $8," says Bradley Reynolds, a vice president at Animal Science Products Inc., Nacogdoches, Texas, who says the higher costs hurt profits. The family-owned, feed-supplement company blends vitamins for customers from catfish farmers to pet-food makers.

Mr. Reynolds's family firm is a lead plaintiff in one of the civil lawsuits against the Chinese vitamin C makers. It was among the U.S. businesses that won damages in the European vitamin case. Though he won't divulge the amount, Mr. Reynolds says, "it wasn't near as much as they stole."

Livestock feed accounts for about 10% of U.S. vitamin C consumption. About a third goes to food and beverage makers, where it is used as a preservative as well as a nutrient. The rest is used in pharmaceuticals and diet supplements.

The proliferation of private antitrust suits against Chinese companies has brought teams of U.S. lawyers to China seeking to defend them. Attorneys looking to defend Chinese magnesite producers recently took part in a bake-off in Beijing. The first round included 30-minute pitches in an auditorium at the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals. In later meetings, held in ornate ceremonial rooms over rounds of steaming chrysanthemum tea, lawyers made individual presentations about their defense strategy.

The Chinese executives rarely spoke, the U.S. participants say, but appeared to understand every word. Their Chinese lawyers quizzed the U.S. attorneys closely about U.S. law and cited the latest cases and law-review articles. A similar competition was held for law firms seeking to represent Chinese vitamin C manufacturers.

Some attorneys maintain that antitrust law still is largely an alien concept for Chinese companies. "China today is where Japan or [South] Korea were a decade ago -- they don't fully appreciate the seriousness of these lawsuits and possible criminal investigations," says Kirby Behre, a Washington, D.C., lawyer with Paul, Hastings Janofsky & Walker LLP, which has numerous clients in China.

James Serota, an attorney with Greenberg Traurig LLP in New York, who is representing Northeast Pharmaceutical, declines to comment, citing the pending civil cases. Other vitamin C makers who have been sued decline to comment. In the past, many have said they have done nothing wrong. North China Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. called the suits "groundless" in reports carried by Xinhua, the official China news agency, in June. In Xinhua reports, Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. said the suits were "deliberately provocative."

One Possible Defense

A recent court filing by Northeast Pharmaceutical in a Massachusetts state court signals one possible defense. The filing says Northeast is "supervised and directed" by the Shenyang municipal government and should be treated by U.S. courts as an "agent or instrumentality" of the People's Republic of China.

Under international law, sovereign nations are immune from antitrust enforcement by another country. That is why lawsuits against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are routinely dismissed. Although they have a number of different shareholders, the vitamin C makers are overseen by state officials and a majority of their stock is still held by government groups, according to Northeast's court filing.

It isn't clear how close these ties remain. A high-level official in the local government office that oversees North China Pharmaceutical says the government no longer "interferes" in management. "We don't help set prices, that concept is 20 or 30 years old," says the official. "They do what it takes to earn money."

Plaintiffs' lawyers are expected to challenge the immunity defense on the grounds that it doesn't apply to companies indirectly owned by the state or state-owned companies that engage in purely commercial activity.

China's chambers of commerce could be major figures in the cases. Many of the price agreements were set up under their auspices. These days, the chambers awkwardly combine their old role in China's centrally planned economy, in which they set prices and market standards, with their new one as champion of the country's newly privatized businesses. In some ways, they symbolize the learning process the country is undergoing as it becomes a key player in global trade.

"China's chamber of commerce has two personalities," says Wang Ming, deputy dean of School of Public Policy & Management at Tsinghua University.

U.S. trial lawyers are examining other Chinese industries for evidence of price fixing. Two of the firms that filed cases against Chinese vitamin C makers -- Boies Schiller & Flexner LLP, and Cohen, Milstein Hausfeld & Toll PLLC -- earlier won settlements of $1.2 billion for U.S. businesses overcharged by the European vitamin cartel. They included drug giant Abbott Laboratories and cereal maker General Mills Inc.

The team of prosecutors and FBI agents looking into Chinese vitamin C is the same one responsible for breaking up the European vitamin cartel. But criminal price-fixing cases are extraordinarily difficult to prove. Witnesses and evidence are often beyond the reach of investigators. This case, in particular, would be fraught with political and economic complications.

"These civil suits are probably going to go forward," predicts Mr. Behre, the Paul, Hastings lawyer. "But whether or not the government decides to bring a criminal case becomes a political question."

Mr. Reynolds, the Texas feed-supplement maker, doesn't think it's all that complicated. "If China is going to be a world player, they've got to play by the rules."

--Jane Zhang in Washington and Zhou Yang in Beijing contributed to this article.
"



To: TobagoJack who wrote (4212)2/15/2006 6:19:32 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217749
 
Elmat's Second Report: The properties' price increases have been attracting more and more people.
The duty free malls attract people (visitors from abroad) and they are potential buyers. And they are big not expensive and full of the whole new stuff. When my wife says there in Brazil Elmat's here they ask: "Why don’t you go there too! Is very good place!" People are really on awe about Dubai. But not Elmat's

Things work like that: You find a job here. Cash in on your assets at home and move over. Buy a house here and get a Thai wife. Buy that huge car you can’t buy at home. Now the guy is working as an architect, salesman, or manager. You can see the ladies and the young man jogging and the young mother with the toddler. It's too much like Hollywood the place I live there in Greens. Including huge SUVs and expensive cars.
But you look close, there's no industry apart form Coca-cola bottling, cement, oil refinery? (I think they don’t even have one), Jebel Ali Free Zone may do maquiladora type of works. The rest is public utility: water, desalinization, electricity generation… And commerce. Lots of commerce. All imported stuff. The whole scheme is based on more and more people buying properties and the people who buy them are the ones designing and building them and the ancillary infrastructure. There are not many guys arriving to use their money earned elsewhere to live here. Not saying the Russians mafia or some money laundering are not at it. The schem depends of guys coming and buying or renting.

Now imagine that one day the pedal of the bicycle stops? That is the construction stops. The system collapses because the jobs disappear. The people have to go seek work elsewhere. They have to cash in on the property they own and move. Only that there will be many doing that at the same time.

Suppose the USD400K property reaches USD320K. This triggers even more selling. The sheiks decide to sell too before the prices go to the bottom. They may sell and prices keep going down. Lets say the bottom is USD120K. The sheiks start buying back but had "harvested" USD200K. Money had gone to haven. Oh, by the way when you buy here you don’t get a deed!

Now, this old Elmat has seen Jakarta burning, (he reminded his wife of that who was there too.) He's seen what the word collapse means. I don’t know, War in Iran, proper blocking of Hormuz Straight? That could make things start roling down hill.
Meanwhile Elmat sees too many cars parked with plastic still involving the seats.

Ain't I a gloomy SoB?