General that is the second time you posted that link to me about your blog - so I have given you your request and read the long post there consuming much of my time I could have spent today watching the movie FALLING DOWN and instead put my brain to interpreting your thoughts - now we have read what many decades of your experiences and accumulated MEMES have led you to believe - and here I will give you what my many decades of experiences and MEMES have led ME to believe why you are wrong:
Lets start with this post you made awhile back:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21465151
David, <<GOOG is heading down>> ... of course it is, because everybody is in, only waiting to get out, and there be plenty to get out from :0)
Well you were WRONG general - GOOG went up - you covered at a loss no? After me and several other people told you to do so much earlier trying to help you - but like kerry said to bush - you can be CERTAIN mr. president and be WRONG. Timing is everything General - your time frames I have great issue with - you may be RIGHT on every MEME you ever create and investment decision you take - but if you TIME them wrong - you LOSE great General. Now look at that quote - you say EVERYONE is in GOOG - only waiting to get out - I say the same thing about SHINY METAL GOLD - people are only IN - just waiting for a greater FOOL to get out - so let us continue:
I posted this earlier today to Grace - this man - A. N. Wilson said britain was CERTAIN about wilson era type policies and exporting democracy and capitalism - well I think he says you can be CERTAIN and be WRONG and their lack of DOUBTING or questioning thier certainty led to much EVIL in the world.
Message 22156004
After the Victorians: The Decline of Britain in the World
English-Speaking Union
Wilson, A.N., Author
Now I used it to show that Grace may be in error about her CERTAINTY of crony capitalism - but this MEME can also be used to show your CERTAINTY of GOLD could be a WEAKNESS you have as well that does EVIL as you seem to say you have ZERO doubt in your idea - that is dangerous. I believe your friend El Mat - iran lover that he is - has said in the intro to his thread perhaps what this A. N. Wilson guy says is right - democracy may be good - but it is not GOOD enough - I say the same about gold - that meme may be good or have been GOOD in the past - but today is not GOOD ENOUGH. I am no hypocrite however, I dont like GOLD for the reasons you say it is important to LIKE IT right now - but I am willing to doubt myself enough and leave my opinions open that if GOLD starts to play an important part in my everyday LIFE then I will find it has VALUE - so far it has not - perhaps when I see the only way I can eat is to give an SS officer some shiny metal then I will VALUE it - but I dont believe that day will ever be in my future - if it comes - I will sing the praises of shiny metal with you. Continuing:
I like this quote from the guru Hienz on your recent blog entry General - what makes him so revered on these boards anyways? I read you dear General because you make me laugh and entertain me - and everything I have read here from heinz - mostly posted by ILD - has been so dry as to numb me to sleep - something that only the weather channel could do to me in the past - and we all know from the nielsen ratings of FEAR FACTOR people will spend much more TIME, MONEY and ENERGY in being entertained than education.
Heinz:
However, while they can control the amount of liquidity in the system, they can't control where it's going.
And that's basically all one needs to know about the long term outlook for gold.
No Mr Guru Heinz - you assume that because we have lots of dollars floating around they will go into SHINY METAL - you are wrong mr Heinz. I have provided links about zimbabwe that has lots of dollars floating around - and I see women buying expensive hairdos with all that cash - not shiny metal!
I saw nawlins refugees buy hookers and liqour with thier free cash - not shiny metal. You mr guru Heinz can no more control cash going into GOLD as bernanke can control it going into the wet stinky hole of a hooker crackhead - that you INSINUATE you can is a fraud.
Here in the USA my indian friend that builds countertops sees the doctors wives ripping up italian marble and having him put down the latest corian with all thier extra dollars, not shiny metal. He says there are so many upgrades the ladies want to do to thier homes that they still have not done - lots of money going to be chasing those remodeling projects for maybe decades to come - toilets that take a sample and send to your doctor - fridges that send your grocery list to the supermarket - real time video phones - 10ft projection screen HDTV's - biometric entry security - nanoscale new floor and kitchen coverings that kill bacteria (and not silver ones either) - then there are so many plastic surgeries the aging ladies want to do before they buy shiny metal - lots of trips they want to take before they buy shiny metal - they also want to upgrade thier cars with the latest in ONSTAR technology and GPS tracking - so Mr Guru Hienz - until I see the OPRAH generation far more concerned about thier future and feel they need to be safe by hording shiny metal - instead of spend spend spend on all kinds of new luxuries and entertainment that they WANT that they still do not HAVE - they will still want to borrow or take all that helicopter money mr Bernanke gives them and put it where they find the greatest VALUE to thier personal lives - and that mr GURU hienz is not SHINY METAL from what I see everyday. Everything you NEED General - my sister NEEDS a new hairdo and a macy's shopping trip - it has been SCIENTIFICALY validated to give her an EMOTIONAL release that having a piece of shiny metal in her sock drawer does NOT - and as I am sure you know General - living with many ladies now - thier EMOTIONS are far more important than anything ELSE and making those EMOTIONS happy non stressed ones takes PRIORITY over ANYTHING. They have done MRI scanning to PROVE this fundamental NEED that GOLD in a HOLE in the backyard does not give them.
I read the great engineer Hoover told the fed to zoom up the printing presses - they did - and the boys of the day stuffed it under a mattress - I bet that made the gold bugs of the day pissy - why you want to stuff green paper in a mattress when you could have used it to buy shiny metal eh? Like Mr. Guru hienz points out - we can flood the world with green pieces of paper - but you cant control where they go - gold, mattresses, new corian countertops, liposuction, IPODS and Cellphones and new jeans for Coconut - etc etc
General Chen - my excess cash is going to faster internet so I have smaller lag times than you and can blowed you up in DEATHMATCH faster - more beautiful chicks at tampa.craigslist.org or theeroticreview.com - In the future I will need to buy VIAGRA at ever increasing prices perhaps but for now my youthful stamina carries me with the ladies naturally.
I buy more expensive dental and medical care. I find these things far more VALUABLE to me than shiny metal in my sock drawer.
Better food at cheesecake factory and more IMAX movies on friday night. Not shiny metal. My mexican laborer friends that just left dirt poor mud huts and Napoleon style LAW want big houses, new full size Pickups (toyota just went in big on that eh?) and they want starbucks and applebees and seminole gambling on the weekends - not SHINY METAL.
Here I see elmats friends in Brazil going for HOUSES - not shiny metal - huh?
Message 22155167
Another point - heinz says they cant control where the money goes - well I know that they can control quite a few things General - and you and Mr. Guru heinz never give me a good answer why when mr mogambo guru and his horde of gold and his shotguns is staring down 20 swat team members with assault rifles what they can and cannot control?
One guy has a gold coin he is throwing at the tank that has NO GOLD but has oil and bullets - who wins this fight General?
iratecinemaunderground.com
You think you will have INDEPENDENCE with GOLD and CONTROL of your destiny - but you and heinz and the other silly fools are lying to yourselves - I already posted where swiss boys no longer CARE about indepedence or HOW MUCH GOLD you HAVE - because we live in an ever increasingly connected world and nobody wants to piss off those boys with drone airplanes and mega scale economies - your china boys know its better to have 500 war ships to our 200 than to have all the gold in babylon and we have all the guns - the gold doesnt matter - never did - never will - its who has the will to CONTROL the sheeple. That takes propoganda, brainwashing, GUNS, death, long jail sentences - your granddaddy had wealth right? But ENGLAND had the POWER and the GUNS and all his GOLD didn't keep him out of jail with lice did it?
iratecinemaunderground.com
Look at this photo again - grand daddy chen and his gold brick versus England and her military might. Who sat in jail with lice covered assassins? The gold brick holder? BWAHAHA
Then you say this General:
Macro-speaking, I figure either US housing value will suffer enormously or USD will suffer horribly, or both.
Richard Benson posted 3 years ago he had sold his NY real estate and bought Ibonds - he is a smart guy - but he timed it wrong - and timing is everything - so he missed out on massive price increases in his NY real estate - until the lemmings/sheeple buy into your psychology - they will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent. You profit from thier movements - not going against the trend as you did with GOOG. Benson asked in several articles - will they sacrifice the dollar at the altar? He made points why and why not - I think he was pretty good on those points.
Then you say this:
I had invested in California apartment complex with friends after the S&L crisis, buying an 80 unit complex at 20% below replacement cost, only to experience a decline to 40% below replacement cost.
I remember watching a special on the great depression General - there was a millionaire that bought right after the first big tumble - being a millionaire back then was a much bigger deal than today - a few years later he was working as a waiter in new york flat broke - I think it was Vosilla that told me if Mark Cuban had bought after the first drop in techs in 2000 instead of maybe waiting til 2001 - he would not own the football team he has now. You can be CERTAIN of your convictions mr president and be DEAD WRONG - timing is EVERYTHING - it is the MOST IMPORTANT thing no?
Then you say this:
The current bubble is much bigger, fully participated in by the entire neighborhood, as every re-financed and cashed out and bought second homes and went interest-only.
OTOH I am not down on all real estate, and am invested around the old HK airport, Japan, and Thailand.
Well I do live in florida and will relate to you a personal story in another post after we conclude with this one. Continuing:
from your blog:
". . . recently Saudi Arabia purchased a large amount of precious metals and the physical was stored in Europe. When the Saudis asked for delivery, they were told the commodities were unavailable. Irate, the Saudis sold their stake and began buying locally....."
Look at this picture again - who wins - the saudi prince throwing a gold brick or the TANK?
iratecinemaunderground.com
And here is another topic Richard Benson went into - the greatest central bank hiest in history - that if the saudi boys dont buy our gubbment notes with those petrodollars - why should the USA war machine keep those princes in power?
You know what china wanted to steal from the USA - I remember it was not her bank vaults - it was her corporate patents, knowledge, supercomputer designs and missle designs etc etc - that is the REAL WEALTH - KNOWLEDGE is power - not gold.
All the GOLD in the world in your vault Mr. Mogambo does not stop this:
iratecinemaunderground.com
I like this quote from your blog:
b) The Saudis are buyers of gold so we should buy some because they will buy it from us at a higher price down the road (i.e.: the greater fool theory).
That is the failure all you gold bugs have - you horde it not because you have need of it or future need of it - you horde it hoping to find a greater fool - like you said about GOOG at the beginning of this post - well I just watched Dr. Zhivago again last night - I saw people burning down thier houses to keep warm in winter - how would shiny metal have helped them? You say well it helps you get away from the NAZIS before they shoot you - I still dont fear anyone shooting me yet.
Bogle talked about stocks - they were fairly valued - at 20 P/e - well that is not a GOOD BUY in my book - i like UNDERVALUED - not fairly valued - recent post on UNDERVALUED:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22156495
Nevertheless, there are some similarities. One is that bear markets ended when share prices were at valuation extremes. On the basis of the Q ratio, all four bear phases ended when share prices were trading at a 70 per cent discount to the replacement cost of net assets. In other words, rather than buy assets in the real world, the investor could step into the stock market and buy them at 30 cents on the dollar.
To Napier, this means the bear market has a long way to run, in terms of both time and price.
Either way, it looks as if it will be many years before investors get the chance to buy shares at the bargain levels seen in the past.
Here we are again General - TIMING - like you and your real estate you bought too high.
Another post off your blog:
Overcapacity in many industries - textiles, shipping, steel, etc. only exacerbate the theory that cheap capital has produced many uneconomic investments.
I still dont have holodecks General - i want to play you virtual deathmatch with virtual reality technology that is not cheap enough yet - I want more capital going to that instead of steel mills. I want more robotic realdoll.com like the movie CHERRY 2000 and I want gene research that makes my cells live FOREVER and I don't have to die - these things are far MORE VALUABLE to me than a lump of shiny metal - I wish to invest in ways that ADVANCE these things and not horde lumps of gold.
More from your blog:
3 - Lack of alternatives for the rising number of lower middle class and middle class of India and China to put their money. Chinese know their history. Thousands of years. They've lost their homes, stocks, money, etc. more times than we can count. At the margin, they'll buy and store a certain percentage in gold and jewelry. 5%? 15% 50%? I have no idea. M.
I remember a square where some student thought they could throw rocks or gold bricks at this thing - WHO WON?
iratecinemaunderground.com
But it is fungible, easily transportable, and incorruptable (unlike the banks and governments). The increasing number of riots and dis-satisfaction with local govt. policy may be telling us more than we realize. If you're making US$5,000 per year in China, you're doing well, but not well enough to have that many safe investment options. That is, HSBC Private Wealth Management isn't knocking on your door offering a plethora of investment options. And if you need to move, your investment can move with you, even in the middle of the night.
Well here you go - Mr Gubbment gonna LIMIT how much wealth you can squirrel away - I dont know about you General - but I can only tote so many bags of gold so far before I need to take a sit down and have some prune juice and a nappy time. And if things get so bad nazi man with his
iratecinemaunderground.com
Is staring me down - I dont think I will be able to carry enough gold to sneak away into the night and bribe all the tank commanders who have heat sensing thermal bullets in thier possession:
iratecinemaunderground.com
Continuing from your blog:
4 - Middle East investors may have more money than sense, but they've got a lot of money. And as we see with Iran, they're nervous about leaving it in US or European banks. Perhaps a good reason to buy Malaysian banks! The safest and most stable of all Islamic countries I would guess. But it doesn't take "diversification" of too many petrodollars to push gold around, give its total market cap relative to global stock and bond markets.
I wonder how many drone airplanes and missles it will take from chinese or usa or whoevers army to blowed up those banks in muslim land?
I bet one of these can do a real number on a banks building, its workers and even the vaults - wether they are in the USA, China, Or malaysia!
iratecinemaunderground.com
We may be blessed with years and years of hyperstagflationary ramp of everything we need and greater-than-great deflation of everything we have; on average, we will be OK, at a tame 3.Odd percent dilution of savings per annum. I am thrilled, for chaos is a gift, crisis a partner, volatility friend, lonely path right way, and survive to fight another day. Oh, yes, nearly forgot, fear is rational, and panic is a survival trait. Chugs, J
Mauldin said Muddle through, no panic, you goldbugs pray at the chaos altar for anarchy so you can make PROFIT - how EVIL - you should be ashamed. Instead of investing in ways that help technology get me and you holodeck and get me and you life saving drugs - you would rather stir up chaos so that people will want to allocate capital to shiny metal that does not get me and you holodeck or me and you or coconut medicines or science that can extend our lives - you really disappoint me General.
AS to homebuilders - I have some info for that too - sold my west palm beach stuff for 2 reasons - I didnt like the new crop of citizens coming in that had no science or educational skills behind picking crops in the field and the state of florida sent me letters saying they were not going to approve anymore rent increases. But scripps research is coming to the area and maybe they will make good drugs for us all.
You continue:
I fear the officialdom may have a few more brilliant machinations by which they can keep the facade of economic prosperity standing, and the woody of financial vigor erect ... there is nothing except a few inconvenient laws standing between Ben BurnAndKaput and his printing press on the buy side, and every asset class (including the washing machines) on the sell side; and the laws are at the mercy of the electorates.
Washing machines? If you will do a search on my posts - I guess about a year ago on Boom busts recovery I posted about Steve Jobs and how his washing machine was a very big topic in his house - wether they get an american one or a european one - is this waht you are referring to?
Message 21466091
In fact I have just done the search for you - I remembered the post - I forgot I made the post to YOU however - HAHAH! BWHAHAHA! You are behind the curve old friend!! I dont get it - you make fun of washing machines - but then you buy apple IPOD from the same guy that thinks washing machine is very important thing to think about - hypocritical! He says people are gonna pay more for better washing machines -you paid more for that NAME BRAND Ipod than one of its many cheaper competitors no?
Here this guy goes into washing machines, why gold is silly to invest in, and some people even talk about nazi officers and gold stashed in various train stations and locker rooms to make a quick get away
econbrowser.com
Now after reading that link General - maybe hiding GOLD in your back yard is not so smart - maybe hiding it in the bus stations and plane stations will be more smart eh?
General - have you taken coconut to hong kong disney - have you been to american disney world? What did you find different and the same?
nytimes.com
Disney and new marketing research tools
Your Brain on Super Bowl Ads
By THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: February 12, 2006
"Who Really Won the Super Bowl?" by Marco Iacoboni, a neuroscientist at the U.C.L.A. Ahmanson-Lovelace Brain Mapping Center. Dr. Iacoboni and his colleagues used fast magnetic resonance imaging technology to observe brain responses to commercials shown during the Super Bowl.
The overwhelming winner among the Super Bowl ads is the Disney-NFL "I am going to Disney" ad. The Disney ad elicited strong responses in orbito-frontal cortex and ventral striatum, two brain regions associated with processing of rewards. Also, the Disney ad induced robust responses in mirror neuron areas, indicating identification and empathy. Further, the circuit for cognitive control, encompassing anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was highly active while watching the Disney ad....
The three biggest flops seem to be the Burger King ad, the FedEx ad, and the GoDaddy ad. Three quite interesting features that come out of this instant study are the following: first, people — when interviewed — tend to say what they are expected to say, but their brain seems to say the opposite. For instance, female subjects may give verbally very low "grades" to ads using actresses in sexy roles, but their mirror neuron areas seem to fire up quite a bit, suggesting some form of identification and empathy. Second ... we saw strong habituation effects, such that the second time around the commercial induces much weaker responses. Third — and this is probably interesting to neuroscientists — among brain regions associated with complex social behavior, we observed a mix of activation and de-activation.
On Disney - you may want to watch thier new film - CHICKEN LITTLE - the sky is falling - buy gold - what suckers!
AS for where to buy your next batch of LAND general chen - may I suggest wise words from Mr Walt Disney:
Message 22157120
mouseplanet.com
After considering three possible sites in Florida, a location on the border of Orange and Osceola counties was chosen in 1964. Dummy corporations were set up and Disney agents, led by Robert Foster, secretary and general counsel for Disneyland, began buying land under phony names. Walt had the team work as quickly as possible, for he knew that as soon as word got out about a massive Disney land acquisition, property costs would go up tremendously.
At one meeting, there was a large parcel of land in Orlando available for about $100 per acre. Walt said, “Buy it!” Roy asked, “But Walt, we already own 12,000 acres. Do we have the money?” Walt replied, “Roy, how would you like to own 7,000 acres around Disneyland right now?” to which Roy immediately responded, “Buy it!”
Foster worked as surreptitiously as possible, flying through other cities so that his travel could not be traced directly back to California. He even made highly visible visits to the World's Fair construction site, only to quietly disappear to Florida the next day.
The three earliest acquisitions would be 12,400 acres owned by a group of Orlando home builders, 1,250 acres owned by an Orlando investment group, and 8,500 acres owned by Florida state senator Irlo Bronson.
chinadaily.com.cn
At the time the Hong Kong park opened, China Radio International reported Shanghai Disneyland would open in 2012 and identified a 500-hectare site in Pudong's Chuansha Town as having been earmarked for the development. |
