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To: ild who wrote (129648)	2/16/2006 1:08:00 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

<<IMO if you want to win long term you must be right on FA.>> With all due respect...beg to differ......pretty strongly....gg

To: ild who wrote (129648)	2/16/2006 1:33:12 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

Granting your premise for the sake of argument, there is the small problem that to be right on future FA you have to apply some kind of TA to current FA...so you end up being a closet chartist no matter which you slice it (and no matter how much cheese you whiz on it.)

To: ild who wrote (129648)	2/16/2006 2:19:40 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Agreed on the long-term FA need. HOWEVER - I'm finding that the longer term is sometimes SOOOOOOO much longer that it can seem nearly infinite. Look at how long some of the airline stocks have remained flying high despite abominable fundamentals. I think you have to understand the FA of the general economy to make a determination of the overall market's bull/bear cycle, and then trade TA in synch with that FA read. I fully believe that the long-term prognosis is miserable for US equities, but it won't go down until the economy begins to weaken, and that won't happen until the housing market blowoff wraps up and the post-housing bubble aftereffects (cashed out refis that haven't yet been spent, speculative construction jobs, fat broker bank accounts) have mostly dissipated. Then we get down to the serious business of correcting the astronomical global imbalances that have built over the course of this multi-decade secular American bull. BC