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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (54071)	2/17/2006 11:15:03 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Maybe because the UK doesn't have the trade deficit we have.

To: mishedlo who wrote (54071)	2/17/2006 11:28:35 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The credit cycle is still improving, the default rate is especially low in Europe. Almost no one expects it to remain this low if economic conditions deteriorate, but it is still falling. From Moody's: moodys.com In the U.S., the speculative-grade default rate remained at 2.4% from December 2005 to January 2006. The U.S. default rate is down from 2.8% one year ago. In Europe, the speculative-grade default rate fell to 0.5% in January 2006, more than half its December 2005 level of 1.1%. The current European default rate is at the lowest level in the past seven years. Only one European-domiciled bond issuer has defaulted in the last 12 months, Concordia Bus, AB. .... Moody's model-based forecasts are based on changes in the distribution of credit ratings and macroeconomic variables. Current readings suggest that the pace of ratings improvement may slow as economic growth moderates in 2006. The default rate is expected to remain below its 5% historical average for the foreseeable future, however. "We do not see any catalysts in place that would lead us to expect a sharp increase in defaults. The fundamentals suggest higher default rates by the end of the year, but the rise is consistent with a cyclical turning of the credit cycle," said David T. Hamilton, Director of Corporate Default Research.