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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (2227)	2/17/2006 3:29:31 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3386

I really think you're splitting hairs and this issue is not going to determine the failure or success of the model, or investor appetite for the stock.. They said on the call 54% become paying subs. Whether or not they are counted as subs when they're on the trial period does not affect the long term trend in any way whatsoever. I made my own simplistic spreadsheet more than 2 yrs ago and checked it yesterday. I had modeled 5.5 million subs at year end 05, annual revenues of 550 million,very close to what actually happened. Where I got it wrong was that I assumed 750 million in expenses. I will now start to model 1 billion going forward which pushes cashflow breakeven out a year or so.It doesn't seem that hard to model this stuff. As I said, the 2 main questions are how many subs will they achieve and at what uptake rate, and where are costs going? You're not saying anything about these questions, though they are speculative in nature. Wall ST analysts don't like it when something happens outside their models which is why they're now downgrading the stock, Of course valuation at this point is a rightly a moving target given the losses/lack of earnings, so we end up with a barometer of market mood.But these things in and of themselves don't mean anything either. I remeber in 1998 when QCOM's entire enterprise value was 3 billion and NOK and ERICY were spending their time bashing the company and claiming they invented CDMA, when they should have just bought them up. QC now earns almost that much money every year..

To: pcstel who wrote (2227)	2/17/2006 4:12:56 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

Let me see if I can answer this one for you. CPGA is supposed to be the total costs of acquiring a new subscriber divided by the number of Gross Additions. XM counts "trial subscribers" as actual "subscribers". Which they are not, at least until they become "Self Pay Subscribers", since they are not included in the CHURN metrics when they don't become "self-pay". You're confusing CPGA with Churn. Unrelated. COST PER GROSS ADD. Both companies count every new radio as a "gross addition" (Sirius actually counts them before they're sold, but that's another matter). It doesn't account for the difference. Sirius should be able to get its CPGA down to where XM's is, one would think. Eventually. It is interesting that SIRI's CPGA isn't even close to what XM's was at 3M subs. But you didn't explain it.