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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (54579)	2/23/2006 9:51:19 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I am glad that you are using the First American report the same way I am, as reference material to understand the overall impact of events as they unfold. I also think Paul Kern should post his weekly updates here because I think it is very useful for cross referencing. Message 22192076 Even though I have repeatedly stated how useful the data of that report was, the analysis is not really worth beans. If the market goes down 10% across the country, the impact will not be linear. It is as silly as suggesting that if the unemployment rate goes up 10%, it only means xxxx people will be unemployed with no impact to the overall economy. Here is the angle that I am thinking about right now and these are the signals that I am watching. 1. Fixed rate mortgages. If these continue to rise as a percentage of total loans, especially for the refinances, that is telling us there is enough equity and income out there to absorb a likely increase in rates and payments. Bullish. To watch: Paul Kern's weekly MBAA post. 2. MBAA refinance index. If this index starts dropping, we need to watch the numbers. We know there are loans facing recast that should be rolled. Even though they are likely rolled into a higher rate, it should still be less than expensive than taking the recast as is. To watch: Paul Kern's weekly MBAA post. 3. MEW. If MEW continues at the same pace at the last two years, I can only assume there are a lot more equity out there than I thought that is available for withdrawal. Logically, MEW should tank in 2006. To watch: Not sure who published MEW data regularly. ????? 4. Consumer credit. This should start going up, especially the credit cards. Now that MacMansion ATM may be tapped out, back to the plastics. To watch: federalreserve.gov 5. Defaults. To watch: COF, BAC, WFC etc for credit cards. micanews.com and all lenders of course. CFC, GDW provide monthlies. Intuitively, I just feel we should be watching the FBR type problem but I am not sure how I can follow them. They are almost like time bombs that explode with no warning. What else should we be watching? Ramsey