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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (54731)	2/26/2006 12:41:12 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

GREBB day after thought. I am most encouraged not by the results of the exercise but rather the availability of information that hopefully will give us advanced notices to unfolding events. This is the calendar I have started. Please feel free to add to it. If there is interest, may be I will keep it updated as time goes on. Feb 28 - Mar 1 Wachovia Home Builders Conference wsw.com Almost every builder is presenting there. We should have some idea what orders and cancellations trends are by Tuesday. Mar 1 Weekly MBAA loan applications. mortgagebankers.org I don't know if there is an official start date for the "busy spring" buying season. For areas like San Diego, spring arrived long ago. It is imperative that purchase applications must go up to demonstrate that the last couple of months was "abnormal" and sales are now back to a normal pace. As for refinances, a decline should be giving us the message that there are no more financial reason to refi, such as to lower interest rates/payments, and no more ability to refi, such as more MEW or to escape the recast. On the other hand, if refinances continue to go up, I can only assume there are a lot more equity than I thought and borrowers are still in good enough shape to get themselves out of stupid loans. Mar 1 WLS eanings. Lyon is concentrated in highly stressed areas such as San Diego, Sacramento and Phoenix. They must have some inventory now because they are offering $10k incentive for 30 days closings in San Diego. Last month, WLS already preannounced that they will have record closings but declining orders. Dec qtr cancellation is typically high, 31% for 2005 vs 29% for 2004, but it dropped right back down to the low teens for the March qtr. Would that repeat? Unfortunately, there are no analysts (just one no name) covering WLS so it is hard to guess whether they will make or miss estimates, since there are no estimtes. corporate-ir.net Mar 1 HOV earnings. HOV is really screwing because their growth are from acquisitions vs organic. I have just been told by wife to go outside and enjoy great San Diego weather. I guess I better stop here. <gggg>