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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (54861)	2/28/2006 8:17:03 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I wish you well on your journey to China. The sort of massive change underway in a country with a deep cultural tradition and a recent history of explosive political change and explosive economic growth is sometimes hard to characterize with slogans from bubble gum cards. Look deeper and take a moment to realize your own perceptual distortions about what China "ought" to be from your point of view. This is a culture older than your own and yet it is one that endured extreme conditions of instability. In time you might understand the desire for stability in political life if the alternative is social and economic chaos. As you go south, the role of government is vastly smaller than in places like Beijing. In Guangzhou you probably would have to pay somebody twice their normal salary to have a conversation with you about politics -- the theme of their response likely being I could not care less, just stay out of my way while I do business. Look at Hong Kong - it was not merely the British influence that spurred capitalism, although this gave Hong Kong political stability and good government. The framework of stability and minimal government gave Hong Kong entrepreneurs exactly the kind of environment in which they could thrive -- a small efficient government that could mostly be ignored. Hong Kong is now part of the Pearl River delta -- a region of about 300 million that has an outlook not unlike the entrepreneurs of Hong Kong. In Shanghai their is a latent air of superiority -- the New Yorkers of China. People there want to be well dressed, well fed in expensive restaurants, and well housed in expensive condos. The last thing in the world they would tolerate is much direction from Beijing -- a place that seems almost foreign to them in some respects. Beijing is the center of culture and education. It is once removed from reality but is also the center of a new high tech reality -- much as Boston and the Bay area took over from New York and Chicago as tech grew in importance here. Beijing in many ways is a kinder and gentler and more civil society. It sounds like you have a lovely friend -- keep in mind that her most intense experiences are from another point in time -- ask yourself what was going on fifteen years ago. Ask yourself why she stayed -- and you will probably trace her journey back to the student uprisings of that time. If you are both honest you will see in China that even most of those who demonstrated for democracy gave all of that up and now are busy getting "rich" and no longer care about politics. They were not supported at the time by the broader population who rightly feared the return of something like the cultural revolution and stood by as the most powerful people in China gave the orders to send in the troops to kill their own children. Imagine if you will that the children of those people in our Congress demonstrated in front of the White House and that Congress sent in the troops and had their own children killed for the sake of stability. Don't think about it for a couple of seconds -- stop and imagine it for a few minutes. This was an extreme decision and it is something to understand more deeply. Believe it or not, it is closer to how you would feel if you had to send your own son to war knowing he would die. You would justify the sacrifice despite the horrible pain and loss. You would say it was for the good of the country. That is what happened in China. For those who were outside the country, the sense of it is very different. Those are the ones who have been here roughly fifteen years. Enjoy your journey -- look below the surface. Breath the rich complexity, diversity and the many, many contradictions with your own way of seeing the world.

To: russwinter who wrote (54861)	2/28/2006 11:01:06 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

Russ enjoy your trip to China. Very interested in your feedback.

To: russwinter who wrote (54861)	2/28/2006 11:58:03 AM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I work with a scientist who also grew up in PRC and wore that little uniform and carried that red book. She said that she believes that she cannot go back at this point, that because of her outspoken views here in the US, she'd be jailed on arrival and not let out. Perhaps your friend has led a less public life. I'm not sure what my own friend did or said, but I think if she feels that way she should not return. She has been a US citizen for many years now.

To: russwinter who wrote (54861)	2/28/2006 2:14:16 PM
From: bond_bubble	Respond to of 110194

Russ, have a great trip. If you can find some info on the following as well it will be great: 1) What do they mean by 87,000 mass demonstrations? Is a company meeting with employees considered "mass demonstration"? If there is a recession, is it likely for government to take more control or is it likely to release control to the people? 2) Does minimum wage concept work here? Are people aware of it? What is the work ethic of people? Usually, ex-govt employees tend to not work. Do the chinese have hard working philosophy (or do they see the management as profiteering on their backs)? 3) How people can afford house loans? Is there a social security number to track credit history? What happens if people abscond if the house prices crash? Can they abscond? 4) Currently, because of one-child policy, one couple has to take care of atleast 4 to 8 elders (parents of the couples and possibly the surviving grandparents). How can they handle such a load? Are the grandparents' pension earning more than the couples?

To: russwinter who wrote (54861)	3/1/2006 5:02:31 AM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

It sounds like a conformist culture mixed with high levels of greed and crony capitalism, and extremely powerful top down social controls and suasion. I know you were talking about China, but you just described some of my christian redneck friends that put bush into power!! The church was the center of social life and control and the backroom good ole boy deals are a big part of business. Anyways - I hope you have lots of fun on your trip Russ - travel keeps you young. Let us know how the food is and if the kids have fun playing in the streets or if there are lots of beggars bugging you for handouts. See if the food there tastes as good as the general tso's and peking chicken you get in a nice food court in an american mall. Also how does the electronics stores compare to a best buy or circuit city? Would be interested in how much pirating/knockoffs you see in hardware devices. Also if you can do so without getting in trouble - see what you can find out about how easy the black market spreads drugs and such - as they industrialize are they getting the crack/cocaine type problems we have. Those new cars they are gonna be selling here in the USA soon - If you could get a peek at one of them that would be interesting too. I would ask you to check out the ease of the nightlife for a smart westerner such as yourself but since you are bringing sand to the beach no point in that - hehe. I will rewatch Brokedown Palace tonight and hope you have better luck than them! To top it off, all these chinese that are supposed to be hording shiny metal - maybe you could find some of them and ask them why? That should make the goldbugs happy. Maybe see if more average chinese where you visit are walking around with ipods and cellphones or wearing shiny metal jewelry.