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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuckles_Bee who wrote (7380)	3/2/2006 8:32:38 PM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 25575

<Is it just a guess?....or is there SOMEthing to watch for?> If I can take a stab at this, I'd say buy when the price is weak and there is no news and sell when there is news. I think it is worth holding a core position in this due to the nice cash/marketable securities position providing value above the past share price. The issue seems to be that the two other partners, MSEV and HAO.V, have outperformed in terms of appreciation since the release 2/27. I think this might continue merely because the other two names are cheaper on a per share basis and FA seems to, so far, have been less important in determining performance to date on these two.

To: Chuckles_Bee who wrote (7380)	3/3/2006 1:27:50 AM
From: haitokin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25575

PTII: I'd say sell 1/2 at the double top, and if it fails, wait to buy back at 5% over the $pre-news price, as that is where the gap could be filled at. There is excess excitement in the air around oilsands these days, and PTII has almost shot themselves in the foot with this, unless the one square mile is sitting exactly on a "Pod" of SAGD quality bitumen, I'd call this purchase a multi million dollar "flying monkey".I could be wrong, and the double top gets broken - shite Hao broke all reality barriers, so their big brother could too. I'm a little disappointed with the size of this lease. Or couldn't you tell. Take for instance HAO's market value - $50million plus for how many acres of oil sands? less than a quarter section of this last purchase - plus 2.5 % or so of a seperate deal that has not been fully disclosed, with an option to buy in for more - some better hope when it does get exposed - er, disclosed, that's it bigger than this one small little "patch" of oil. Pooka, You'd think Hao owns 20% of CWPC's leases. Only they don't. even if the NR is entirely factual, and Hao's share of 50M barrels is 10M, What fraction would that be if they owned that many barrels of CWPC's forecasted "probable" reserves? just using eaglenest - and not looking at firebag east - 10M/3400M = .3% of CWPC's market cap? less than $1million. So Hao is trading at 50-100 times CWPC's value? I mean - clue me in here, but this is getting quite goofy. Sorry, I stop trying to make meaningful calculations when things start to stink this badly. And now, Patch is a part of that. So blow me down, I sure hope PTII can get to $10. But I'd take out some profits if I had more shares than I do - I'm down to my last 1000 - so I'll be watching closely for double top tomorrow to sell all, and wait for the lower three's again. And maybe I miss out - there are better bets out there that more closely align with my world view on risk/investing/betting on stuff that has become much less understandable these days. Soigf? Looks like a bargain baby. H