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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (29131)	3/8/2006 12:34:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

Thanks for the note mh - it's just what we need to turn this market around.:) <<Maybe it's time to short everything, everywhere?>> Now if we can just get everyone thinking that way, we can get a rally going.:) Don

To: The Ox who wrote (29131)	3/8/2006 12:57:29 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95737

Hi OX, Just wondering if other global rates going up are causing an unwinding of the carry trade. To unwind the carry trade I believe one must sell the treasuries that were bought and repay the loan over in Japan or anyother low rate country. The selling of treasuries depresses prive and increases yield. The rate increase resulting from selling treasuries shouldn't be a surprise as other countries make the carry trade lesss profitable. Fed just needs to watch and let global markets do its work for it. Much ado about 10 year rates/yields - this too will pass. Good set up to buy at discount before next strong earnings reports begin in second week of April. FWIW Bob

To: The Ox who wrote (29131)	3/8/2006 1:13:16 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

>Maybe it's time to short everything, everywhere? lol< Don't laugh too hard. One of the most reliable indicators I have followed the last few years has been the put to call ratio. While the number of actual shorts in the market is no where near high enough for the market to form a long term bottom (at this time) every time the CPC has risen above 1.0 on its 5 and 10 day sma's it has resulted in a market rally. A number of indicators like this one are getting so bearish that they will give buy signals if we keep selling off setting up the possibility of a short term bottom: investorshub.com But we would have to drop a long way further to get to a true cyclical bottom which the FED may induce. RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (29131)	3/8/2006 1:21:08 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

So, what has really changed in the last 5 days except for the stock prices in these companies? The peak is hardly visible but once it peaks it keeps going down - you can "screw" the sell side and sell your own shares short; a pretty unsophisticated way but it works us.f1.yahoofs.com keep in mind that macro picture looked completely different in Q1 2004 (no oil and rate jitters) and still AMAT sold off as bookings start rising.