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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dan6 who wrote (57383)	3/8/2006 9:50:53 PM
From: xcr600	Respond to of 57584

There's probably some sort of Carlyle Group connection to the whole thing. eom

To: dan6 who wrote (57383)	3/8/2006 11:32:51 PM
From: PJr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

It could be that the US needs the UAE as a staging area for Iran contingencies. If Iran would go nuts reacting to UN sanctions (or worse), they likely would attempt to retaliate by closing the Straits of Hormuz through which 40% of all the world's oil passes every day. About 40 miles directly across the Straits from Iran is .... guess who ... the UAE. It would be strategically important for the US to be very close to the area to keep the Straits open or to launch military strikes against Iran if required. The policy makers who know the complete story have information that pundits don't. Perhaps the UAE port deal may make sense if we knew what the administration knows. Maybe not. Perhaps we're willingly kissing a frog just to obtain something that will prove to be very important in the inevitable future. But we won't know that until later. It could very well be that Bush is one of the few recent Presidents who is not so much interested in doing the politically correct/acceptable, but rather doing what provides the US the best options in a very dangerous situation. We don't know that for sure though, do we. It seems Bush listened to the world as a result of the Iraq backlash, and agreed to let someone else take the lead in trying to diplomatically settle this Iranian nuclear issue. His numerous critics now fault him for doing what they wanted him to do in Iraq when they butchered him for failing to let others negotiate before our strike. So now, the EU's diplomatic efforts apparently haven't worked. Now even the French are talking aggressively about taking some type of action. Think how serious it must be to get them to talk somewhat belligerently. It REALLY must be close to crunch time! Having said that, we need to recognize that if Iran doesn't back off of processing enriched uranium, there WILL be a military strike. Even if the US was dead set against it, they will HAVE to act in concert with others or worse yet alone, so that Israel won't. Nothing would unite the Arab world more than a unilateral strike by Israel. This isn't an academic debate for Israel. For them it is a life and death issue and they won't wait much longer since they perceive that continued "talking" only provides more time for the Iranians to make progress toward their declared goal of obliterating Israel. The likelihood of the US letting Israel go it alone is "zero" in my opinion in spite of world opinion or consequence. No matter what happens, who initiates the perceived first strike, or who is ultimately blamed for provoking the whole ordeal, it will not be pretty for the region, the US, or the world. Thoughts? Pat

To: dan6 who wrote (57383)	3/14/2006 1:10:28 PM
From: shadowman	Respond to of 57584

Although there are many different "extenuating circumstances", the Chinese attempt to buy Conoco also raised similar national security questions. The idea that forbidding that purchase might hurt future foreign investment in the US didn't seem to be much of a factor (at least among the pundits) in that decision. I think the idea that not allowing Dubai to make this particular investment would send some kind of serious negative signal to potential foreign investors is a political red herring. In political parlance, a CYA balloon.