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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (29231)	3/9/2006 8:43:58 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95765

I don't think the time of year has much influence on the individual stock estimates. <<I think Don might be able to tell us if estimates are generally lowered as an individual year goes on. But I think this is more a cyclical issue based on the hardship being placed on the economy due to rising interest rates, high energy costs, high deficits and low consumer savings.>> I may be wrong, but IMO there is a "segment" of the market that is looking for a slow down in the last half of this year. This has been very vaguely defined, but some of the entities in the market think estimates will be coming down as the year progresses. I think that is putting a lot of downward pressure on stock pricing. On the other hand, I haven't seen any information from the "gurus" specifically cutting estimates for chip sales for 06, 07 and 08 which have been previously estimated as increasing each year for the next 3 years. If those estimates hold up, and chip sales do increase, it is hard for me to see how earnings estimates would come down for chip suppliers. By the same token, if chip sales hold up, and continue to increase, semi-equip companies should continue to do well. I think the key here is to keep on the lookout for "hard" information that says chip sales are not going to meet previously published targets. That should give us better information on what to expect in the 2nd half of this year. Don