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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (29235)	3/9/2006 10:07:04 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95776

RtS, I think your idea of an October bottom is certainly possible. This is just about the right time for the market to "get it on" if it is going to do so. Notice that I said possible, not probable, but more about that later perhaps. Right now, lets look at what happened in 2002 when we had the bottom in October. To do that, lets look at the SOX in that time frame. finance.yahoo.com Notice that the SOX was in the 600 range in Mar/Apr 02. From then it was all down hill until the bottom(200+) in October. We are in March right now. If the sell off continues, it would be almost a carbon copy of the 02 chart. Personally I don't think that is going to happen for reasons that I stated in the last post. If you go to Gottfrieds chart on chip sales and semi-equip bookings, notice that chip sales were in the 10 to 13B range during 02. Now we are at the 20B+ range, and estimated to go higher, not lower. Now I certainly admit, analysts are very slow in changing their opinions and maybe things are "going to hell in a handbasket" for the rest of this year, but I haven't seen it yet. We do need to watch it very carefully, however.