Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (8225)	3/11/2006 9:05:31 PM
From: fp_scientist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13449

Dabun - interesting analysis ... but every example has a counter-example? Look at the long term PQ chart below. According to your criteria, one should have sold PQ at 5ish back in June 05 when it closed below the 40 week moving average ... Look at what it did after. I don't mean to be controversial, I'm here to learn. How do you rationalize the PQ action below? What other indicator --if any-- was giving a "HOLD" signal at the time? Thanks. stockcharts.com And while we are at PQ, what do you think of buying it now? Some people saying is a value play based on cash flow -etc, worth 13-14 bucks. I would not touch it, would you? Kindest regards - fp

To: chowder who wrote (8225)	3/12/2006 5:21:47 PM
From: hubris33	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13449

Technical analysis is a process. You must go through the process of learning all of the indicators and experience them in real time trades. After a while, you will find yourself using fewer and fewer of them. Dabum - excellent comment! I appreciate your insight and willingness to share what you have learned. I find that to be a rarity from one so articulate and accomplished and thus greatly appreciate your openness. Hope I can learn from these insights. Thanks for that note on CHK, as I had considered adding due to the addition in the index. Perhaps I should realize that if I had the idea that many other more experienced had it as well, only much sooner. Though your explanation is probably the better reason to avoid this trade. Now you astutely point out that, The difference between a novice trader and a professional trader is that a novice trader will try to capture the price low while the professional trader will try to capture the price point where the character of the trend changes. I confess to being guilty of trying to catch a falling knife from time to time. In your presentation of charts and discussion on NBR you point out a high volume spike that occurred at the pivot point on February 6. If I might, I'd like to ask a question or two to help me understand what you are seeing? In addition to the large volume I note that the HODs in February have all been lower that this period high from January. Is this part of what you note while looking at the chart? Also I have read 'somewhere' (though memory fails me on where), that when the price drops to a pivot area, accompanied by heavy volume, and the price fails to close below the pivot, then that heavy volume is a sign of participants 'catching' the drop a repelling it. After all in this case the bulls did not allow the bears to close the price below the pivot point. Perhaps this is 180 degrees off? So you would conclude that the inverted hammer formation, piercing of the pivot area, confirmed by 3x volume is a sure sign of the impending trend change? What else did you see in that first chart? Again thanks for sharing your knowledge. H3