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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7664)	3/11/2006 6:34:30 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

Your theory of oil formation is good, but what good is it? Look at your conclusion: war on wealth, war on oil: The main reason for the war against Iraq was to keep their oil off the market. You couldn't be more wrong. This is a typical 'crat kind of reasoning. First you start out with a prejudice. The prejudice is programmed and in this case it's "oil companies are evil". The next move is to warp facts to support this prejudice. The conclusions end up being absurd. That's an age-old game - knobble the competitors, be it by a blow to the knee of an ice-skating competitor or other subterfuge. How does withholding Iraqi oil from the market accomplish that? The only effect would be that price rises higher than it would be otherwise and stays high longer than it would. What effect does this cause? It causes the oil companies(assuming the 'crats don't tax away oil profits for their useless counter productive vote grabbing welfare programs) to go out and find more oil, a lot more oil. There are too many competing oil companies in other countries for US companies to constrain the amount found. The world would develop an oversupply, a condition that is currently all the rage on WS if you haven't been paying attention. The price would plummet. The companies would fall on hard times because they would have over built their capacities for output. So following your lunkhead thinking the oil companies would be setting up their own demises. This is exactly what happened after 1979. BP, Exxon, coal producers, nuclear power plants, and everyone else in the energy industry did extremely well from having Saddam's oil shut down. But your argument is the companies engineered the "shut down". It's built on the nth conspiracy theory. The companies are pulling Bush's strings. They control him. Then why not bomb Saudi Arabia for their alleged Al Qaeda connections? Why settle for small potatoes? The oil companies aren't that greedy? Uh oh, you're outside your box, but actually all this is absurd reasoning. Any valid reasoning shows it's ion the oil company's, and the Saudi's best interest to have a constant price for oil. If I know it, you had better believe that the oil companies know it. The Saudis are gradually coming to realize it. The reason why is when price rises, no doubt it generates some short term profit, but over the long run, it brings on too much oil which then wipes away all the short term profit and replaces them with long term losses. This is what happened after 1979. In 1988, a BP Oil colleague and I were discussing oil, politics and what happens and we figured "a bullet through the middle east" would be an excellent idea for profits. I have friend who's an exec at Chevron. He says that all the time, but also, he knows the reality. I guess I run in smarter circles than you do, for he says it tongue-in-cheek, and to push my buttons. On the other hand I'd like to challenge your friend in any area in oil where he thinks he's an expert. I bet I can show that the guy is another clown especially since he's making these kinds of remarks to another clown. I was not surprised when a couple of years later, the shot was heard around the world. When April Glaspie gave the green light to Saddam, he fell right into the sanctions. His oil was off the market! Prices and profits boomed throughout the 1990s. Bad move, amateur. There was no shot during the '90s. Why not check a long term chart in crude, and when were the sanctions applied, and to what extent they impacted Iraq's oil exports? Nada. Iraq's exports didn't fall until the fall of Saddam, and then they went back up to near original levels. So much for the strings on Bush. But the real kicker is that world oil price would have risen to current level regardless of Iraq's output. Haven't you been paying attention over the last year as every pundit waltzed around claiming booming demand from all over the developing world would put demand in high gear and cause price to soar? That argument is no longer valid according to WS pundits, but the pundit's argument will change with every random fluctuation in weather.