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To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/23/2006 10:16:58 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

I can say with full confidence that folks in this neck of the woods are in damn-near consensus that real estate is NOT in a bubble. This despite the fact you can't walk into a Starbuck's without seeing three people reading "Speculation Mortgages For Dummies".

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/23/2006 10:21:53 PM
From: Rob Fritz	Respond to of 209892

Bubble smubble. Give us your baseball forecast for this year.

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/23/2006 10:40:53 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 209892

wow. where you been hiding??

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/24/2006 12:37:05 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

I'm sorry "reaper." Do we know you? I vaguely recall a screenname like yours. Hmmm. When was that? Didja watch the WBC?

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/24/2006 7:11:04 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

RE bearish consensus certainly exists - and it exists despite the fact that the sector remains strong. RE is indeed in a bubble... but it may not burst until many more bears... recognize the error of their ways... and get aboard the train. In any case, looking at the $HGX chart since last summer what I see is (what is likely) a series of "threes" -- which suggests a corrective consolidation. May even be an evolving Triangle or something of this sort. Patterns do not always "work out"... but they DO tend to carry a certain probabilistic edge.

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/24/2006 10:06:31 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

Wow! I'm honored to be the one to prod you out of hiding! <g> There's a great section in the Hussman letter for this week about sentiment, called "Thought is not action". My favorite line: "If you're a window-washer and know that your platform is slippery, thinking about it isn't enough to eliminate the risk." It's about market risk, but applies to the RE bubble as well: hussmanfunds.com Thought is not action There's a quaint idea that has emerged in analyst talk these days, which basically goes “concerns about valuations, the current account deficit and other things aren't really important, because everyone has already looked at them, and markets don't usually respond to things that investors have already considered.” It's a nice idea, but it's preposterously wrong. It isn't the mere consideration of a risk that makes it benign. Rather, risks become benign only when investors have already acted on them. Anyone who remembers the 2000 market peak (from which, as it happens, the S&P 500 has still earned a zero total return after 6 years) will recall that rich valuations were very well recognized, but investors suspended or delayed acting on those valuations by reducing their speculation. For a known risk to become benign, you have to act on it and price it in. It's not automatic. Thought is not action. Simply put, the main risks to the market generally are ones that investors have considered, but are also ones that they have not acted on. If you're a window-washer and know that your platform is slippery, thinking about it isn't enough to eliminate the risk. What makes the risk benign is that you tie a rope around your waist. The fact that investors have “considered” valuations, the current account deficit, and other matters doesn't in the least make those risks less important, because investors have not acted on those risks in any meaningful way. People may realize RE is in a bubble, but just as they realized the tech bubble existed, they hadn't yet acted. Consensus of a RE bubble won't prevent its collapse, and in fact makes a crowd-psychology-driven reversal all the more likely, as widespread realization spreads that the music has stopped and everyone rushes to find their chair. BC

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/26/2006 5:28:35 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

but all I want to know is: did he "auto-short" Freddie?? <g> hope all is well ...

To: reaper who wrote (131136)	3/26/2006 5:46:18 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

re sentiment -- recent poll on YHOO New home sales plunged 10.5% in Februrary. Do you think sales will continue to fall in the coming months? Yes 75% No 26% 48457 Votes to date