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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (29702)	3/28/2006 5:26:58 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95663

I agree, RtS, eventually the there will be "the" dip that needs to be bought. I am glad that interest rates are no longer at 1% but I think they are overly high, at least in the short term. A prime rate of 7.5%, overnight lending rates at 4.75% and little change in the release wording which implies that rates are going higher still. On the plus side, those who are interest rate dependent, like many retirees, will benefit. Likewise, the dollar will be stronger. My strongest concerns are that the FED is basing it's decision making on the short term issues and not the longer term, big picture. As the old saying goes, you can't turn an aircraft carrier on a dime. If the economy weakens, as many believe it will later in 2006, then it will probably be too late to start responding in May. I just can't imagine that we would overheat if they failed to raise rates, especially with the excessively high price of oil, nat. gas and electricity siphoning off a substantial portion of the average consumer's spending power. What was wrong with letting these last 14 consecutive rate hikes stand? I guess we'll never know the answer to that one!

To: Return to Sender who wrote (29702)	3/28/2006 11:33:58 PM
From: sammy™ -_-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

Hello RtS, Because the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates has been virtually nada for much of the first quarter, the bond market is suddenly accumlating a lot of interest. A yield inversion has occurred roughly one to two years prior to each of the last six recessions, and although the bond market has flirted with such an inversion for the last four months, an absolute inversion hasn't happen. The inversions tend to last the better part of a year. Inversions coming before recessions tend to be fairly prolonged ones, imo. The only fully inverted curve to “cry wolf” and not precede a recession occurred in 1966—the inversion was short-lived and, like today, the reason for the inversion was the abnormally low long-term interest rates, rather than high short-term rates. yo