Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cravey who wrote (191533)	3/31/2006 11:28:20 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Thank you Cravey. I did not see the restatement and had the $60M in bonuses lined up in the "other" as in Q3 and was understating flash losses by like amount. Consequently, I no longer beg to differ with you and am in agreement that Q3 and Q4 OP, including bonuses, improved by a whopping by $128M from Q3's $149M to Q4's $287M. Almost 50% of incremental revenues of $325M flowed directly to the bottom line. Having said that, assuming a $200M increase in Q1 revs to $1.50B, and 50%, or $100M, to the bottom line, then I'm even more optimistic regarding Q1 as we're looking at a $0.60 Q1, up from Q4's $0.41, before the one time flash write down! What the heck is Wall St. doing pushing AMD off $9 from $42 when it's so obvious that Q1 is an absolute blow out and AMD should be trading, right now, in the $50's?

To: Cravey who wrote (191533)	4/1/2006 2:16:11 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

[Edited] @Cravey - Rev./Mosesmann First, I truely had to laugh when I read the paper from Mosesmann, first put the numbers in front so that a 10$ target makes sense (0,5$ (2007) x20 = 10) and then write the story ... But I'm much more worried about your revenue forecast for Q1. " I am expecting AMD revenue to push close to the $1.5B range in revenue " We had discussed this quite often and AMD said flat to slightly down, so I don't know, why you are not ruling a 15% QoQ increase out? When you ask me, thats really not reachable!!! Q1 is the second weakest demand quarter in the year and Q4 is the strongest, so a 15% rev. increase would mean around 10% volume surplus and around 5% ASP gains. The pricing was really very stable this quarter and with more server and DCs we could expect additional ASP gains, I'm going here in the 2-3% ballpark, take 1% here or there. Could be 1% or also 4%, depends really on the mix, probably mostly on the Sempron vs. A64 ratio. But from where should all the volume numbers come from? I know its really hard to track and we don't see, what the OEMs overall are doing, so softer (overall) PC demand hasn't to mean, that AMD "lost" volume, but when you ask me, it would be really outstanding if AMD could hold volume numbers stable QoQ. Q4 was awesome, don't forget this. When I have this in my mind, I also come up to Hectors guidiance of "flat" . It could be a small number more (0-5% rev. gain), but these are my BEST-CASE Numbers up to date and I wouldn't really surprised if Revenue also decreases slightly QoQ. Also could imagine 0-5% here, so the avarage from both are around 2-3% plus or 2-3% minus - I couldn't do it better. So the mosesmann revenue forecast is to high and it would really surprise me, if we would reach this EPS level with this revenue. I would expect more, really more. I wrote here minimum 3 posts to this topic, where I mentioned the crucial factors for Q1. There are many and its really difficult to come to an EPS number. I only go that far, that the market will be surprised and I expect minimum of 35C and a very good Q2 guidiance. Edit: When the market sees this number (Q1 > 35C) and the good guidiance which I expect, I find it really ridiculous, how anyone could come up with a EPS under!!! 1,2-1,5$ (lowest guess is 0,85$ now on Yahoo) for the 2006 year. 2007 would be another topic and many factors has to be worked in, so 2007 is for me an "sentiment" number and everyone could place this or that, thats clear, but to assume that Q1 will give the highest EPS number in 2006 is ... is really laughable. BUGGI

To: Cravey who wrote (191533)	4/1/2006 4:53:43 AM
From: hurricanehicken	Respond to of 275872

Like you, I am having issues reconciling the Intel reduction in revenue to the total market numbers. Last year the market only reduced 2% q/q in processor revenue, if that was true again AMD would be up over $1.8B. I am not quite that deranged, so backed into a market revenue reduction of 9% and ended up with AMD doing a little over $1.5B. Ah but CPG revenue in Q405 was only $1.303B. If revenue come in at $1.45B ballpark, AMD revenue share will be around 20%. Market share numbers would be interesting too. And Hans Muddlemann may have to increase AMD's share rating to 'Touch it with a 10 foot bargepole', which is of course lower than Intel's 'Sell one of your kindeys and buy! buy! buy!' I can see several more analysts looking dumbstruck during Q1 report. We heard 'sea change' in the last one, how about 'ocean change' for this one?