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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (191625)	4/2/2006 12:57:14 PM
From: economaniack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Noticed a lot of AMD in this morning's flyers, including some great deals on Turion notebooks at $599 and $799. Think they have finally started to take lots of notebook share. That should be really good for earnings this quarter and next. I think the market is completely missing how AMD is transitioning into the high margin part of the processor market. Its funny, they seemed perfectly willing to (correctly) dismiss AMD dominance of gaming machines as more about bragging rights than revenues, but now focus on that market like its the whole ballgame. It has long been true that while the FX chips are expensive and get a lot of attention, the volume is ridiculously low (10s of thousands), and the margins on most desktop chips are terrible. That is one reason why AMD which is really dominating the consumer desktop still has ASPs about 70% of Intel. The big money is in mainstream notebooks where essentially the same chips get a 50% premium on pretty serious volume. I think this will be the surprise from AMD for the next few quarters, the impact on margins of growing notebook share. It makes a huge difference if they trade a Sempron sale at $45 for a Turion sale at $85-100. I think it also accounts for the trouble at Intel. They have had a cash cow with Centrino selling at $200-500 in huge volume, which more than makes up for any share loss in the much lower volume but even higher margin performance and server sectors. I think Core Duo is actually a problem for Intel because it is such a small volume high dollar product, but it instantly relegates single core Centrino to second class, and as such makes it at best a direct competitor for Turion, and since Turion is 64bit and Vista ready (and cheaper), maybe not even that. If Intel could move 60% of the notebook market to dual core, that would be OK, but it looks to be a pretty niche product for now, so they seem to be positioning AMD to take the sweet center of the notebook revenue stream until Merom ships. Thank you very much. E

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (191625)	4/3/2006 1:35:20 PM
From: smooth2o	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

tpg: I'll be surprised if INTC doesn't "take the big hit" this Q. I think they've lowered expectations enough that there's little reason to keep pushing it out. ******** Intel will post within expectations, probably at the midpoint. Revenues and profits both below seasonal. There is no "surprise" wbmw expects. I'll be mildly surprised if INTC doesn't admit to losing market share in all X86 segments. ***** Won't happen. You'd have to squeeze PO's bs to get that ack out. They might mention something about overall loss of share like last quarter, maybe even no mention of how much, absolutely nothing about segment performance. More than likely, they might mention gains segments/regions. I'll be very surprised if INTC is outside their earnings or revenue band in either direction. * Me too. Again, no surprise up and certainly down would be a major failure. Profits will be 1-2B. I'll be surprised if INTC doesn't stress forward results. * Don't think so as that would be Q3,4. I think they will guide marginally better than Q1, nothing phenomenal. If they did that and showed that the AMD market share slide has been kept equal or less, I think they would have made the goal set by sales for the quarter. Then they could mention that even with today's products they stemmed the tide. Tomorrow's products will reverse the trend. When PO said that market share change would reverse, he meant Q3,4. I'll be surprised if AMD actually lost market share in any segment. ****** Me too, they may have decreased share in some. I think Intel will have some effect with share, maybe not revenues. To think that there was no change, heads will roll in sales. Simply not acceptable. There were LOTS of bonuses on the table. Trying to find out if there is an Operation Crush, expect there is, but don't know. But I'll not be surprised if AMD exceeds high published revenue and earnings expectations -- currently $1.45B and $0.37/share.. I'll be pleased but not surprised. * .37 would be a blowout IMO...don't think that will happen. I'll be surprised if AMD is below band in either revenue or EPS. * Me too, anything IN-BAND would be much more than anything in the past. I'll be surprised if INTC doesn't talk up 65Nm production and capacity. ******** Expecting 45nm discussion instead. I think they'll say 65nm is in the bag, doing great, give the impression that AMD is way behind (least that's what I'd do). I'll be surprised if analysts don't ask AMD about 65Nm production. ** That, Turion, K8L and where are the 65nm parts, plus what exactly gives with outsourcing and verify that it's 90nm only and ask when 65nm happens. Specifics. I expect this will be the analysts target area, not market share, not architecture, not NGA. If this doesn't happen there's no forward progress. They'll also ask AMD their opinion about SC/DC xistion as that determines need. I would ask about AMD's plans for numerical values vs Intel's published values. I hope analysts ask both companies about energy usage but wouldn't be surprised if they don't. ****** Nah. Too many other factors on the table. I'll be surprised if INTC doesn't AT LEAST MENTION under utilization. ************** Won't happen. That will come from the analysts. I think you'll find the fabs are full. You forgot to mention: Acceptance of dual core less than expected. Will they make the DC/SC transition as stated at IDF as that is Intel's mfg advantage. Lack of 3rd party Conroe/Woodcrest/Merom bms. Intel will answer that all major customers are seeded and doing their own. Verification of Conroe/WC/Merom rollout on time. Lack of acceptance of Core Duo, esp at Dell. Available in Jan, ship in April? What gives? Smooth