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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: booyaka who wrote (57384)	4/4/2006 12:49:20 AM
From: regli	Respond to of 110194

"What's your outlook re: housing prices?" This is one of the few areas where I fully expect price deflation. I'll go out an a limb here: housing is such an emotional area that a 50% decline within five years wouldn't surprise me once disillusion fully asserts itself. I agree with Benson that there will be a time in the not so distant future when owning a house will again be cheaper than renting.

To: booyaka who wrote (57384)	4/4/2006 2:11:55 AM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

as long as he errs on my side that is fine...a few of those helicopter drops into a swiss account and i am outa here

To: booyaka who wrote (57384)	4/4/2006 7:21:00 AM
From: dpl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"If they wait too long (i.e., until after the deflationary forces have taken hold), they'll probably fail. " I think this will happen unless the is an "event" of some sort.This is why GM scares me.If it goes BK before things pop then we could have another 1998 on our hands and the whole bubble could last until the end of the decade. "I think Bernanke will tend to err on the side of too early rather than too late because of his study of the Great Depression. " Maybe he is now a student of Japan.Let the bubble pop because,in his mind,it can be managed.Something to think about. David

To: booyaka who wrote (57384)	4/4/2006 1:05:12 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

Then again, the Fed might be forced to keep rates higher than they want to in order to attract enough foreign capital to finance the twin deficits. Zimbabwe has 600% rates - why aren't you jumping in? The philster is saying this morning he is confused why so many people think foreigners are supporting the dollar - he thinks pimco and magic offshore folks are tricking lots of folks. They just had some guy on CNBC: Ron Fielding OppenheimerFunds Portfolio Manager He is buying 8% GM Junk bonds - they asked him R U NUTZ? He said I think GM is going bankrupt, I just have a good trading desk and expect to be able to dump the bonds before they file chapter 11 and the bonds become worthless. So who is he going to dump them on with his awesome trading desk? Me? You? Who will be the ultimate sucker? His fund investors? I am AMAZED in this HIGHLY RISKY environment the people that are still chasing YIELD and forgetting totally about RISK - now is a time for SAFETY no?