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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57507)	4/5/2006 10:22:46 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

One more reason for housing to tank: Think about it John -- a person owns a home, wants a better one, and can get a good price for what they own now. If they sell they face: (1) Higher interest rates on their mortgage, and (2) Higher taxes. There is a strong disincentive now to "trade up". Instead, people will improve what they already own. and move less often. This will cool the market - although it is far from certain how cool that will be. This is not good for those builders trying to entice people into McMansion land.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57507)	4/5/2006 10:44:06 AM
From: 2sigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Where in your calculation do you figure in "market risk" as opposed to "specific company risk" insofar as the home builders resistance to share price declines. I suspect once the market turns down, the home builders will be, in part, leading the way. Haps. (BTW, I always find your posts informative.)

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57507)	4/5/2006 11:55:55 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The reason these boards have been wrong is that nobody has thought it would had been possible for the Fed to create a level of inflation this high, without causing a corresponding rise in long term interest rates. Why ? FCBs ? Monetization ? Public brainwashed into believing that there is no inflation ? Whatever the reason, the fact is that this will lead to a huge dislocation sooner or later.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57507)	4/5/2006 12:11:09 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 110194

Christ the builders are up again today flying in the face of all the evidence to the contrary. Why ? Because instead of invisible hand, we now have a heavy hand. It is a mistake to assume that 5% rates will do the trick with 10% inflation and soaring money supply. In fact, the Fed has no options left. It is too late. This economy would not survive a bout of deflation. What would have happened in the early 80's if Volcker not only had not raised rates to mid teens but would actually cut them and started monetizing bonds ? Maybe the dollars in your pocket would be pink, instead of green. Back then the economy was on sound enough footing to be able to withstand rates in mid teens with only a moderate recession. The longer this goes on, the more likely hyperinflation and currency collapse is.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57507)	4/5/2006 4:45:10 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

news.google.com This stuff would make me like gold for the future. Ben Stein said everyone should own a second home. Its a demographic thing with the baby boomers right? Lots of canadians near me are selling - said they don't trust another few seasons of scary hurricanes. RE Gold - Regli talks to me about people's habits - how they have to change globally for the imbalances to be fixed. Savers need to spend more - spenders need to save. Grace tells me the depression built character - I can agree - my grandparents - given all the wealth of the universe - were always going to save - never would have become spenders. My nieces - thirsting to death for a glass of water in the desert - will never save. I see this trend in many people - turning a saver into spender in the middle of thier life is not easily done - the reverse is also very hard. Yet this is what economists say must be done. How? It is a generational thing that perhaps can only be fixed with a new generation - asking people to change deeply ingrained habits midlife may just not be possible. Now thinking about global issues in that way lets look at gold. Perhaps the older members here have certain well learned habits and beliefs relating to gold - but the new generation -many do not value it and never will from my observations. Demographic issue. Seminole says we have to find the new illusory object of wealth that people in the future will value - I don't think it will be gold looking at the youth around me. All those boys and girls playing in virtual game worlds and on ebay and text messaging back and forth. People say gold is the ultimate medium of exchange and Patron makes fun of a future where people put 100% trust in IBM digital security (I agree with him - I worked for those jokers and saw so much sillyness) - so he doesn't have credit cards or checks or trading accounts then eh? See you can't escape the beast - even if you know not to trust the beast and it is SHAFTING you - what choice do you have if you are to exist in the modern society? The beast is part of the package and people accept it. Les of survivorman - he is moving out into the boonies and gonna cut the grid and eat roaches - most people can't do that though. I have to use General Chen's friend elmatador to argue my point - its a demographic thing - as the old generations die off - thier ways of thinking go with them - goldbugs thinking will die one goldbug funeral at a time. Perhaps that is a mistake the new generation will make - not learning the lessons of thier elders - that gubbments cant be trusted with money control - yet it seems many people have to learn lessons personally the hard way. The depression era folks learned the hard way - and now perhaps a new generation also needs to learn the hard way. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22326066 New generations embrace a technology. Older generation dies out. It is not about technology. It is demographics. No kid learns how to type in a typewriter, no new secretary learns how to operate a telex machine, no engineer learns how to swap plug ins in a HP frame to line up microwave equipment. Kids learn how to use a PC. Secretary learn how to use a PC. new engineers know their stuff through the screen on a lap top and never has to turn capacitors and coils to align a demodulator of a microwave radio link. My nieces dont know how to save, they dont know gold should be valued and is an honest medium of exchange and cant be printed into oblivion - they know credit card and spend spend spend - all they will ever know - they will trade thier last bottle of water in the desert for a new brittney cd and then they will die - but they will die singing - OOPS I did it again - played with your heart! HAHA! El Mats point ties in what regli, grace, and so many others discuss - new generations learn new ways - new ways to shop, spend, work, store value - it won't be gold, not from what I see - not in dealing with the new generations. In my future - I want to be invested in new technologies and consumables that are depleting. Things I want, need, and use - gold just doesn't compute - not as a medium of exchange and store of value. Nano gold may compute - but thats for different reasons. If money is debasing - is gold a way to preserve wealth - sure seems to be - is it the best way to grow wealth - not by a long shot. There are many other things I still want and need that need to be built, engineered, discovered, developed and throwing capital at gold and gold miners won't get that done. Making gold miners rich and trotsky gold horders wealthy doesn't get my IMMORTAL DNA research done - doesn't make my flying car come about - etc etc Trotsky says he reads philip k Dick and likes the guy - I watched blade runner - was GOLD important to Roy Batty?